Now's When the NBA Really Gets Interesting

I was pretty pissed that I had to miss the first two hours of the NBA Draft last Thursday (stupid full-time job!) but thanks to the internet, I was able to follow the proceedings pick-by-pick. Here are some random thoughts in the wake of the first week of the NBA offseason:

* Has this been the most exciting offseason week in NBA history? I mean, Shaq trade demands, a new McGrady rumor every 2 hours, and a draft filled with unknown talents galore. See, the NBA is taking after major league baseball and developing a hot-stove league. Offseason hype is great for the sport, as fans and journalists go apeshit for every nugget of speculation. I'm telling you, Offseason Illustrated needs to hit the newsstands immediately!

* The Mavericks need to bite the bullet and make this Shaq trade happen. The Mavs are the only team with enough tradeable assets to even make it feasible, salary-wise. And Mark Cuban needs to face the fact that Dallas will not win a title with that core. Dirk, Nash and Finley have created an entertaining brand that fans like, but you just can't win without a gritty, put-the-team-on-my-back kind of player. That's why Cuban needs to be willing to part with Dirk in order to make the deal happen. It's like buying a really expensive car- you only cry once.

* I don't know what to make of Tracy McGrady. First he bolted Toronto so that he could step out of Vince Carter's shadow and be The Man on his own team. Now he realizes he can't elevate a team by himself and wants to play for a contender. But there's no way McGrady can coexist with another star- he's more of a ball-hog than any player in the league. Once he realizes he can't score his 29 points a night, he'll have the Payton pout going.

Furthermore, Houston would be the worst fit possible for McGrady and for Yao, who needs to be the focal point of the offense. The whole problem with Steve Franchise was that he was a scorer, not a passer. The smart thing would be for the Rockets to trade Francis and Mobely for some rebounders and then sign Steve Nash as a free agent.

* I still can't believe Orlando passed on Okafor. He's a sure thing who's proven himself at the highest level, so why take a chance on a potential Eddy Curry? The Charlotte Bobcats (who bamboozled the Clippers into getting the second pick) have gotten themselves off to a very nice start.

* I'm happy for Josh Childress, who became the highest draft pick in Stanford history. Atlanta is probably the best city in the country for a black, 21 year-old NBA player, as we found out from the Gold Club trial. Here's hoping that he keeps the 'fro and doesn't resort to the cornrows, which are ubiquitous in the dirty south.

* When Portland picked Sebastian Telfair with the 13th pick, a nation rolled its collective eyes. Will the Blazers ever learn? I'm setting 5 as the over/under on months until Telfair's first marijuana arrest.

* Once again, the Warriors had the 11th pick. Once again, they selected a Euro that nobody's heard of. I hope Monty knows how to curse in Latvian. But since my boy Chris Mullin is calling the shots, I'll withhold judgement until at least 2 weeks into the season.

* On his radio show, Dan Patrick pointed out that race always plays a factor in those draft scouting reports. For example, white players like Luke Jackson are always described as with the same workmanlike adjectives. He's "hard working...a real gym rat...the son of a coach...his teammates love him." And my favorite: "He's deceptively fast!"

* I seemed to be the only guy who thought that Boston had a really good draft, especially with their picks of Delonte West and Tony Allen at the end of the first round. Allen will will follow the Gilbert Arenas-Tayshaun Prince-Josh Howard mold of "Gee what a surprise! A guy who was good in college gets drafted late then turns out to be good in the NBA!"

* From what I saw, I felt that ESPN's draft coverage wasn't as good as last year's and wasn't nearly as good as TNT used to be. For a proceedings as outlandish as the NBA Draft, Charles Barkley and Kenny Smith definitely need to be on hand.

 
Mr. Predicto Revisited

If there's anything I love more than making wild predictions, it's patting myself on the back when I turn out to be right. So now that the NBA season over, it's time to take a look back at my preseason predictions and see how I did.

* "I think Dwyane Wade will win rookie of the year. He, not Carmelo, was the best college player last year and his 6'5'' body is NBA-ready...The Heat have a lot of young talent that will flourish now that Pat Riley's iron fist is no longer holding the team back."

Did I tell you about Dwyane Wade? Did I TELL you? While I was a bit overly optimistic with the Rookie-of-the-Year prediction I knew this guy was destined for greatness. Ever since I saw him torch Kentucky in the '03 Elite Eight, I was convinced he could be mentioned in the same sentence as LeBron and Carmelo. After Miami got off to an 0-7 start, I was worried that my prediction about the Heat's success were way off. But sure enough, Wade kicked into another gear at the end of the season and Heat wound up with the fourth seed.

* "Whenever I think about Keith Van Horn being on the Knicks, the first words that come to my head are invariably "unmitigated" and "disaster".

Well, given that Van Horn barely lasted half a season in New York, I think it's safe to say that I was prophetic.

* "The door is open for Paul Pierce to absolutely blow up this season. The Truth will be the MVP of every fantasy basketball league in the nation."

I was wrong on this one. I really like Pierce as a player, so it was disheartening to see him sulk his way through the season. He was surrounded with a terrible supporting cast, but despite (and because of) this, he should have been able to average at least 25 points a game.

* "Brad Miller is the most overrated player in the league...Anyone who thinks the Kings improved with this acquisition is kidding themselves."

Sometimes when you step to the plate, you whiff spectacularly. I'm eating major crow, as Miller was spectacular this year. If he'd had arrived a year or two earlier, the Kings would have a title already.

* "Orlando will make a strong playoff run now tha McGrady has some frontcourt help in Juwan Howard."

Ouch. Reading that one is like a punch to the gut.

* "Sacramento is the one headed for a fall. The Kings are never healthy- it's always some kind of nagging ailment or freak injury keeping them from being at full strength."

Last year it was Webber. This year, Bobby Jackson's injury did them in. The Kings really need to fire their team doctor.

* "The Mavs are no better or worse than last year. Even though they're adding Walker and Jamison, that offense get any more efficient than it already was."

You can stockpile as many shooters as you want but as soon as you run into a decent defense, you're finished. And the Mavs were done in by Sacramento, who's not even known for lockdown D.

* "The new-look team I'm most interested in seeing is the Timberwolves. Kevin Garnett was already on the verge of an MVP season...I'm predicting that the T-Wolves will finally get out of the first round."

I was right about the T-Wolves but looking back, I wasn't exactly Nostradamous. It was pretty obvious that Garnett was ready to blow up and that the new talent in Minnesota would push them to round two.

* "The Lakers have star power, but I just don't think that team can come together for a title run in one season."

Thankyou! Thankyou! Please hold your applause everyone. Somehow I just knew that this plan wouldn't work. Champions are more than just talent on a roster sheet. Most NBA champs have won with star power, but every titleist needs role players.

* "In basketball more than in any other sport, the team with the best player wins the crown. And Tim Duncan still wears black and silver."

Well, it's safe to say that Detroit proved all of us wrong.

 
Darko's Last Laugh

What a terrific NBA Finals. Detroit played inspiring ball, exuding heart, hustle, tenacity and intelligence. It was truly a joy to watch this series. If only the Lakers had shown up.

Here are my thoughts on the Pistons' win tonight:

* As great as it was watching Detroit pull away in the third, didn't you feel like they should've implemented a Mercy Rule, a-la Little League?

* How great was it to listen to Al Michaels and Doc Rivers just eviscerate the Laker effort? I've never heard an announcer take a team to task like that.

* If I could be any NBA player for a night, I might just pick Ben Wallace. I'd love to have that supernatural ability to get every loose ball, rebound at will and strike fear in the best athletes in the world. But then again, I might want to be a player who could shoot a basketball.

* I really do feel bad for Karl Malone. He's a class guy (unlike the despicable Gary Payton) and I hope the lack of an NBA title won't diminish his legacy.

* I think it would be best for everyone if Kobe left the team this offseason. Shaq could be the undisputed man, the Lakers could begin their rebuilding process, the league would benefit from the dispersion of talent, and most importantly Kobe could begin a new chapter. If he is acquitted, it would be absolutely fascinating to see what would happen if Kobe had his own team. Would he step up as a leader and take his own crew to a championship? Who would go farther in the playoffs, Shaq's team or Kobe's team? Or would we find that neither player is nearly great without the other on his squad?

* Chauncey Billups reminds me a lot of Brad Johnson of the Tampa Bay Bucs. Bounced around for years, never able to maximize on his potential. Then finally, magically, they mature to the point where they lead their team to a title. Point guards are in fact very similar to NFL QBs. It sometimes takes a few years for guys like Billups, Steve Nash and White Chocolate Williams to really master the position.

* Joe Dumars ought to be standing on a table somewhere boasting like Ali after knocking out Sonny Liston.

Joe, I can't believe you fired Rick Carlisle. "Eat your words!"
Joe, Tayshaun Prince can't be an NBA starting forward. "Eat your words!"
Joe, drafting Darko over Carmelo is the dumbest draft pick ever. "EAT YOUR WORDS!"

* If the U.S. wins the gold medal in Athens, Larry Brown will be a mortal lock for Sports Illustrated Sportsman of the Year.

* The best thing about this series is that it mercifully ended three bits of NBA conventional wisdom:

1. In the NBA, the team with the best player always wins the title. No Shaq, no Kobe, no prob. The Pistons won this title like a college team- with unselfishness on offense, an energetic bench, and a cohesive defensive unit.

2. The East is the West's bitch. Finally, we see that it is indeed possible for an Eastern conference team to win the league title. With these Pistons, the still-young Pacers, and the LeBronaires in Cleveland, the future of the East looks mighty bright.

3. Championship experience always wins out. This myth only reared his head in the last decade, when the Bulls, Rockets and Lakers kept repeating as champions. But it wasn't always like this- the young, upstart Celtics overtook the Sixers; the young, upstart Pistons overtook the Celtics; and finally the young upstart Bulls overtook the Pistons and the Lakers in '91. Sometimes the better team just wins on skills.

 
A Gameplan for OT

The Lakers' infuriatingly predictable comeback win tonight was hard to watch. When Shaq made the 3-point play and the Pistons turned it over on the subsequent possession, I had all but given up hope for Detroit. You just knew the Lakers were gonna hit a 3 to tie it, and because of that momentum surge, there would be no way to win in overtime.

In fact I've long held that basketball's overtime system actually hurts the game from a dramatic standpoint. The suspense that builds up during a back-and-forth nailbiting fourth quarter is often nullified by adding five whole minutes back on the clock. An 8- or 9-point victory in overtime doesn't do justice to the razor thin margins of the final moments of regulation. The tension of the close game is nullified. That's why I propose overhauling the format of overtime completely: first team to 11 points wins.

Here's how it works: 1) Turn off the game clock, but leave the 24 second shot clock. 2) Give each team two timeouts. 3) On all non-shooting fouls, the team that is fouled gets the option of shooting free throws or inbounding the ball. With this format, the object of overtime is to make the most of each possession. Imagine the tension every time the ball is brought up the court- do you go for three? Try to draw a foul? At what point do you use your timeouts? hink about if you were a point guard bringing the ball up with your team down 10-8. Do you play it safe and go for two or pull up for a game-winning 3?

Setting the victory mark at 11 points is perfect because you can reach that total in anywhere from four to six possessions. If you've got some three-point gunners on your squad, you've always got a shot to win quickly. Alternatively, if you've got a big man with a high-percentage move in the low post, he could be your go-to guy. Every overtime would become riveting. But this format wouldn't just be all about offense- a lockdown defense is critical. On that last possession, you need to get a stop because you can't just foul and hope to get the ball back.

Think about what Kobe or Tim Duncan or Reggie Miller could do in these circumstances. Could you imagine the wild atmosphere of overtime in a college arena? Dick Vitale might tear his shirt off in excitement. How could this idea possibly fail?

 
Hoops History for Dummies

Yesterday I stumbled upon Spike TV's marathon of the 52 Greatest Moments in NBA History. It's the type of show that's perfect for a Memorial Day afternoon- you know you're gonna get sucked in, so you don't even try to fight it.

The list was great, if only because it didn't make any sacrifices to attract a younger audience. So while I was worried that it would be heavily weighted to NBA highlights of the last 10 years, I was pleasantly surprised. There was no Shaq, no Allen Iverson, and mercifully, no Vince Carter. The special only had the good stuff, great highlights from the '70s and '80s (plus a healthy dose of Jordan classics). The best aspect was that there were several moments that I had read about (usually from the Sports Guy waxing nostalgic) but I had never actually seen. So I was glad to finally watch highlights of Jerry West's 60 foot shot, the Bird-Dominique shootout in '87, and The Greatest Game Ever.

This is a great time capsule of when the NBA was a completely different game- everyone made their jump shots (even without the three point line), teams actually passed the ball while on the fast break, and the refs didn't blow their whistle every posession. What I saw yesterday made me wonder how great it must have been to be a fan in the golden age. I wish I were old enough to actually remember the good old days.