Postseason Pontificating

Between perusing the Giants-Dodgers tilt and the various NFL matchups, I've been checking in on the Red Sox-Yankees game today. For all the hatred and "rivalry" at stake, there isn't actually a whole lot on the line in this game. Given that New York has a 4 1/2 game lead and that Boston has a stranglehold on the wild card, the Sox-Yanks matchups over the past two weekends have been relatively meaningless, since both teams will make the playoffs no matter what.

However, today's game is somewhat significant because I thnk it will be the last time these two teams meet until April. The Yankees-Red Sox ALCS re-match that everyone assumes is inevitable will not actually happen. Why? Two words: Johan Santana. The guy has been as dominant a pitcher over the past ten weeks as anyone in recent memory. In a five game series, there's no way to survive with Santana making two starts. I think facing the New York in the first round would be especially advantageous. You'd have Santana starting Game 1 at Yankee Stadium, then get games 3 and 4 at home, and finally you put Santana on the mound for Game 5. Doesn't that sound very winnable for Minnesota? Regardless of which team they face, the underrated Twins (who also have Brad Radke to go with a scrappy, small-ball lineup) will advance to the ALCS.

The Boston and New York media won't know what hit 'em.

 
End of the Streak, End of the Myth

Having grown up a diehard 49ers fan, Jerry Rice is my favorite NFL player of all time. That being said, there has been way too much hoopla over the end of his pass reception streak yesterday. There's no two ways about it: this is the most overrated streak in sports. First of all, Rice has spent his entire career in a system that favors short throws, slants, and low risk routes. Second of all, there are so many more relevant football records that Rice already holds. Like his 294 touchdowns. His 22,000+ receiving yards. His 14 seasons with 1,000 yards. This wasn't a Cal Ripken Jr. situation, where the streak is the highlight of his career. There has been much, much more to Jerry's illustrious career.

Finally, my biggest problem with the record is that it completely ignores the 1997 season, which Rice missed with an ACL tear. Rice blew out his knee in the opening game (Steve Mariccui's debut as coach, nonetheless) and missed the next 14 games. How exactly does a consecutive-games-with-a-catch streak continue if the player isn't playing in consecutive games? The whole notion of a "streak" is a hoax. I've never understood why nobody ever questioned it in the past seven years.

 
Aquatic Expectations

Lately I've found that my movie fandom has been going through a familiar pattern. First, I'll read about an intriguing movie 6-12 months before it comes out. Maybe there's a director or actor that I like, or the plot will pique my interest. I'll say to myself "man, that movie sounds good. Lemme put it on my List before anyone else has even heard about it." Next, I'll see that the trailer has been released, 3-4 months before the movie comes out. I go to Apple's terrific trailer site, eager to get my first look. I will be disappointed by what I see, as the trailer indicates that the movie has a different vibe than what I was anticipating. Finally, I'll see the movie, which turns out to be even worse than the trailer.

This was the pattern I experienced with The Ladykilers, The Village (which I overrated in my summer movie preview a few months back), and Anchorman. Now, I'm fearing that my most anticipated movie of the fall, The Life Aquatic, may be succumbing to the same pitfalls. Directed by Wes Anderson (Rushmore, The Royal Tennenbaums) and starring Bill Murry as an eccentric oceanographer, I had been hoping that this would be a fun, quirky, thoughtful comedy. But the underwhelming trailer just came out (along with an annoying, longer title), and my hopes are slightly muted. It's so rare nowadays that a movie lives up to my expectations, but with Anderson's track record I'm still keeping my fingers crossed.

 
Why Yes, I Am Ready For Some Football

For the first time, I am participating in an NFL Fantasy league this season. Eleven co-workers and I held our fantasy draft last Wednesday, and based on that night alone, I now understand why fantasy sports has become so hugely popular. Pretending to be a GM, evaluating players, developing and executing a draft strategy… I felt like Mel Kiper Jr. should have been there giving a running commentary. For me, the most fun part were the days leading up to the draft, when I made a spreadsheet and created a prioritized draft board for each position, along with an overall ranking for the top 50 players. It’s like filling out a March Madness bracket, but less pressure-packed because if you screw up, you won’t be eliminated from the game after one weekend of games. Anyway, I had the ninth pick in my draft and I feel that I did pretty well putting together my roster:

QB Joey Harrington
QB Jake Plummer
QB Josh McCown
RB Edgerrin James
RB Charlie Garner
RB Stephen Davis
RB DeShaun Foster
WR Torry Holt
WR Justin McCareins
WR Drew Bennet
Def. Miami
K John Carney

My one hope is that my fantasy team doesn’t take over my regular NFL fandom. I’ve seen guys watch the games on Sunday and care much more about their fantasy team than about their actual favorite teams. This is shameful, as nothing should override the purity of rooting for your team. Speaking of favorite teams, I’m bracing myself for a brutal season of following the 49ers. You can try to be as optimistic as possible (“Hey, maybe this is the year Kevan Barlow can overcome that pesky fumbling problem and becomes a 1,500-yard back!”) but who’s kidding who? The Niners will be lucky to put up 13 points per game this year.

Mr. Predicto

League MVP: Peyton Manning
Rookie of the Year: Larry Fitzgerald
Surprise team: Houston
Disappointing team: St. Louis
Overrated player: Aaron Brooks
Underrated player: Mark Brunell
Comeback player: Kurt Warner
First coach fired: Herm Edwards, Jets
Biggest trend: Rookie receivers produce huge numbers
Biggest shocker: Brett Favre announces his retirement before season ends.

NFC
West: Seattle
North: Minnesota
South: Carolina
East: Washington (sleeper pick!)
Wild Card: Philly
Wild Card: Tampa
Championship: Philly over Minnesota

AFC
West: Kansas City
North: Cincinnati
South: Indianapolis
East: New England
Wild Card: Houston (sleeper pick!)
Wild Card: Tennessee
Championship: Indianapolis over Kansas City

Super Bowl: Indianapolis 31, Philadelphia 20
Philadelphia will take advantage of a rather weak NFC and again gain home-field advantage in the playoffs. The difference is that this year, McNabb has two decent weapons in Terrell Owens and a peaking Brian Westbrook. The Eagles will finally get over the hump and win the NFC title game after losing the previous three. The Colts have developed into an offensive juggernaut and this is the year that Manning and Co. finally turn the corner. Dungy will put together an adequate defense and Mike Vanderjagt is still the best kicker in the league (why is placekicking still the most underrated component of NFL success?) and the Colts will put it all together and win the title.