A-Rod: the latest victim of "The Mattingly Theory"

Witnessing the Red Sox stunning comeback win over the Yankees, I couldn't help but think about the Pistons' win over the Lakers last summer. In both cases, you have the sport's darling franchise that has a recent history of championship glory, and after an offseason of big acquisitions they began the season as heavy favorites. In the playoffs however, they were upended by a scrappy bunch of gamers who simply played better as a team. But then I broke it down even further and thought about the fact that all this happened despite the trumpeted arrival of Alex Rodriguez to New York.

The Sports Guy has "The Ewing Theory," a phenomenon in which a team improves significantly after losing its star player. Well, I think we now have "The Mattingly Theory," in which a championship team obtains a great player, only to fail to reach the same heights with that player. To wit:

* Don Mattingly. This list is named after Donnie Baseball because he did the impossible: he pulled the Yankees down from their World Series heights. The Yanks won the World Series in 1981. Mattingly joined the team in '82 and had a great career, becoming the face of the franchise. But he never managed to lead his team to a pennant, and retired after the 1995 season. The Yankees won the World Series in 1996. 'Nuff said.

* Charles Barkley. The Houston Rockets won championships in 1994 and '95. Seeking to bolster their lineup and return to glory they acquired Barkley in 1996. But alas, Sir Charles was past his prime by the time he got to Houston and could never elevate the Rockets and achieve the championship ring that so eluded him.

* Terrell Owens. The brash young talent was drafted by the San Francisco 49ers in 1996, 15 months after they won the Super Bowl. While he served as the heir to Jerry Rice's throne and eventually became the team's best player, Owens could never deliver the Lombardi Trophy back to the Bay.

* Rasheed Wallace & Jerry Stackhouse. In 1993 North Carolina famously defeated Chris Webber and Michigan for the NCAA title. The Tar Heels entered the '93-'94 season poised to repeat, having added two outstanding recruits in Wallace and Stackhouse. But the two superstars fouled up team chemistry and Carolina never won it all in the two years before the pair bolted for the NBA.

* Karl Malone & Gary Payton. The two future Hall-of-Fame free agents decided to hitch on to the Shaq-Kobe Laker dynasty in the summer of 2003, hoping to win their first title. But, as we all remember, the collection of superstars went home empty-handed.

* Alex Rodriguez. The $25.2 Million Dollar Man figured he couldn't lose by trying on the pinstripes. He was having a great playoffs until Game 4 of the Red Sox series, after which he looked like a guy who couldn't deliver when it mattered. For all his immense talent, the lasting image we'll have of A-Rod's season is his open-handed bitch slap of Bronson Arroyo's glove in Game 6.

Curiously, A-Rod is both an example of “The Mattingly Theory” and “The Ewing Theory,” as his former teams improved meteorically after his departure. The 2001 Mariners won a record 116 games and the 2004 Rangers were in the playoff hunt until the final week of the season. Is there a more star-crossed star in all of sports?

 
Just When You Thought You Were Out...

A few random thoughts after an insane pair of games Monday evening:

* Ladies and gentlemen, we have ourselves a series. For the second night in a row, the Red Sox have saved their season, their fans' sanity, and Fox's advertising department by prolonging the ALCS. David Ortiz is an absolute beast-- and to think nobody had heard of him 18 months ago.

* Speaking of Ortiz, he totally reminds me of Pedro Cerrano, the menacing slugger from Major League.

* I know it's still premature to predict that the Red Sox will win the series after having been down 0-3. But think about it: if a team were to make the ultimate comeback, wouldn't games 3 and 4 have to be emotional thrillers? Wouldn't the underdog team need this kind of magical, confidence-building boost in front of your rabid fans?

* I wish people would stop using the argument "since an 0-3 comeback has never happened, it can't be done." Everything is unprecedented until it happens. Besides, the past doesn't actually have that much influence on the future. Just to refresh your memory, after five games of the 2003 ALCS, the Yankees also had a 3-2 lead. We all remember how that one went down to the wire. (OK, I'm over-rationalizing now)

* Carlos Beltran has officially turned into Barry Bonds. And as his baserunning skills would attest, he's got some '92 Bonds in him too. Anyone who hits eight home runs in his first nine postseason games needs to be walked every time he comes to the plate.

* It must be very disconcerting to Cardinals fans to see such a high powered lineup suddenly disappear for a game. Did that lineup really get one-hit by Brandon Backe?

 
Is the Boston Dream Over?

As I write this in the hours before Game 3 of the ALCS, the convetional wisdom says that the Sox are finished. With Schilling likely done for the year, how can Boston expect to climb out of a 2-0 hole? Well, I'm not counting the Red Sox out, because I've been thinking about how the ALCS played out last year. Tonight's game, with Arroyo pitching at home against a shaky Kevin Brown, is very winnable for Boston. And if they win tonight, New York will have a 2-1 lead after three games. Last year, New York had a 2-1 lead after three games, and the Sox definitely weren't done. Another thing- the Red Sox didn't have Schilling last year but they still got to the 11th inning of Game 7.

It is conceivable that the Yankees come in all business, ignoring the Fenway catcalls, and close out the series this weekend. But something tells me that there's at least one big surprise left in this series. After all, we're talking about playoff baseball.

 
Debate Reactions

While keeping an eye on baseball via my TV's picture-in-picture function, I caught tonight's third and final presidential debate. I wasn't wowed by either guy, although I thought that there were times when Kerry clearly gave more thoughtful answers than Bush. This was most evident after the questions about homosexuality and abortion; once the questions centered on a specific issue (that couldn't be tied to Iraq or terror), Bush was outclassed. Bush tended to dodge and divert the question, whereas Kerry spoke with more gravity and sincerity. But in any case this debate isn't for those of us who've already made up our minds. It's quite unsettling to think that that despite the tremendous national interest in this election, it's going to be decided by the citizens Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania-- that's it. Whoever wins two of those three states will win the White House.

The thing that really got me riled up tonight was the the post-debate coverage. I cannot for the life of me understand why every network almost immediately interviews partisan figures from each of the campaigns. Senators, campaign managers, and party chairman offer absolutely no objectivity or insight. The networks are well aware of this, yet they can't help themselves- I just don't understand it. After the second debate, CNN's Jeff Greenfield even brought it up-- but 30 seconds later a powerless Wolf Blitzer began an interview with a Democratic senator. Is it too much to ask to get an extended period of objective analysis?

 
Day 5- Total Immersion

Another day, another eight hours in front of the TV watching sports. But I have an excuse, as this weekend I'm out of commission recovering from dental surgery. Here are some random thoughts from a guy with remote-induced Carpral Tunnel Syndrome:

* I don't know why even bothered to wake up for the Red River Shootout this morning. Texas just plays uninspired ball when they line up against Oklahoma. Even though the Longhorns only gave up 12 points, this game wasn't any different from years past. Again Oklahoma's tailbacks ran wild. Again Texas made several costly turnovers. Again Cedric Benson saved his worst performance of the year for the Sooners. And again, the Longhorns showed that they don't deserve to be ranked in the top ten every year.

* This Astros 19-game home winning streak is getting downright eerie. Last week they win with a no-name pitcher who was starting on two hours notice. Now, the opposing pitcher leaves the game after four pitches? Someone at Minute Maid Park is doing some quality voodoo work.

* I've been impressed with Stanford football's growth this year, but today's Notre Dame game shows that we still haven't quite turned the corner. The Card's failure to score touchdowns on those first two drives are the sign of a team that hasn't gotten its act together. Good teams take advantage of all of their scoring chances while on the road.

* ESPN Page 2 has a very enjoyable daily feature this baseball postseason called "Second Guessing." With the benefit of hindsight, they make some very good points, mainly about the choke jobs being turned in by the managers so far. Today's column points out Gardenhire's dubious decision to remove Johan Santana after five innings. Why bother starting him on short rest if you're not gonna let him finish out a game that he's winning?

* As much as I hate the Yankees, you've got to tip your cap to them for the way they refuse to lose. Even once the Twins built a 5-1 lead, you could sense that it wasn't safe. And once the game went to extra innings... forget about it.

* Well, I was wrong- it's gonna be Yanks-Sox all over again. I'm not totally disappointed, as I am very excited to watch this ALCS (and equally excited to read the Sports Guy's take on it) . On paper, the Boston lineup is better, since their 7, 8,9 and 1 hitters are more reliable (with both teams' 3-6 hitters being about equal). On paper, the Boston pitching staff is better, especially since Schilling will be rested enough to pitch games 1, 4 and 7. I don't think homefield will
be any significant advantage, since both of these teams have enough experience winning in each other's parks. It really, really feels like it's the Red Sox' year. But... you know.

* Even though I was expecting a decisive win for USC, today's game with Cal was actually as close as the pundits predicted. Aaron Rodger's meteoric rise is just a testament to how good Jeff Tedford is with quarterbacks. What's too bad for Cal fans is that he'll be an NFL head
coach by 2006.

* I love how ABC kept throwing their oversexed Desperate Housewives commercials at every game break. Didn't they start out promoting this as a show aimed at middle-aged women? I guess it suddenly occured to them: "Hey, we got 21 million viewers last week. We can get more! Quick, let's slap togther every single clip we have of hot women bending over and running around naked!"

*That said, I am one of the 21 million who watched Desperate Housewives last week and it was quite enjoyable. It's like Melrose Place meets Picket Fences meets American Beauty.

* Just when I thought I had the SEC race figured out, Tennessee wins at Georgia and LSU wins at Florida. This is the most competetive college football conference we've seen in years.

 
Two Days Down

The first two days of baseball's postseason haven't disappointed. As expected, the Cards and Astros have outslugged their opponents with methodical efficiency and little drama. In the Angels-Sox series, I was genuinely surpised that Anaheim wasn't able to rally in their first two games (simian mascots notswithstanding). Back in 2002, guys like Garret Anderson and David Eckstein continually pulled the team out of the depths and came up with clutch hits. With the 2-0 series headed back to Fenway, the Red Sox look unbeatable. But as any Sox fan knows, that's when it's time to start worrying.

The Yankees comeback over the Twins tonight was as wrenching as it was predictable. I was baffled by Gardenhire's decision to leave Joe Nathan in the game. As soon as he threw his sixth consecutive ball to start the 12th, I started pleading to my TV screen. When will managers learn that it's better to cut your losses at the first sign that your pitcher is in trouble? It seems like it always gets worse before it gets better.

 
October Madness

Everyone always hails March as a great time to be a sports fan, since the month is dominated by the NCAA tournament. I love the tourney as much as anyone, but if anything March Madness is a misnomer. Not that there's too little madness; there's too little March. The NCAAs actually only take up ten days out of the calendar, so there's a lot more time spent anticipating the games than watching them.

For my money, October is the best month of the sports year, with conference games starting in college football, the NFL season taking shape and of course, postseason baseball which begins tomorrow. As I've written previously, playoff baseball captures me in a way that regular season ball simply can't. This is the time of year when I become a student of the game, continually fascinated by the way that baserunning strategies, bullpen substitutions and pitch selections unfold over nine innings. Here are my thoughts on each of the four division series:

St. Louis-Los Angeles

Watching LA tear the Giants' hearts out on Saturday was a brutal experience. You could feel the wheels start to come off early in that ninth inning, but Finley's walk-off grand slam was like a kick in the teeth. I can't believe that Los Angeles, whose fans didn't even fill the stadium during a playoff-clinching series against their arch-rival, gets to watch their team in the postseason while us San Francisco fans have to wait a 47th year without a title.

On the other hand, St. Louis fans definitely deserve their team's success. St. Louis fans are known around baseball as being the most knowledgeable, enthusiastic, fervent fans in the country. The Cards have a lineup (led-off by the human mascot, Tony Womack) that should instill fear in any opposing pitcher, and their four-man rotation features a crew of under-appreciated workhorses who've combined for 60 wins. I will be more than happy to watch this very likeable Cardinals team sweep Dem Bums in three games. Pick: StL, 3-0

Atlanta-Houston

Why why why why why do we have to watch the Braves in the playoffs again? This has to be the most uninteresting dynasty in the history of sports. There's no personality no heart, no real identity even. Let's see, there's J.D. Chipper, Andruw... is Mark Lemke still around?

Houston is on one of those playing-over-their-heads type runs, and they smell an awful lot like the Padres of '98 and Marlins of '03. Clemens and Oswalt are good enough to shut down the unintimidating Braves lineup, while Houston's big bats will do the necessary damage to continue the home win streak in Games 3 and 4. Pick: Hou, 3-1

Anaheim-Boston

The conventional wisdom says that the Red Sox are a very strong World Series threat based on their power lineup and power pitching. But if we've learned anything over the past few autumns, its that small ball wins championships. Nobody does that better than the Angels, who steal, take extra bases and move their runners along better than any other team. I'm very tempted to take Anaheim, but I think that the Sox have enough intangibles (solid defense, a decent bullpen, the underrated leadoff hitting of Jesus Damon) to match up with the Angels. This will be the best ALDS series, by far. Pick: Bos, 3-2

New York-Minnesota

Well, we've got the matchup that I was talking about last week. I'm not worried about Santana choking under the pressure- after all, everyone forgets that he shutdown New York in Game 1 of the ALDS last year. What I wonder about is how the Twins perform in Games 3 and 4 at home. Last year, the Yankees strutted in and silenced the Metrodome crowd. But there are two things that lead me to predict that the outcome will be different this year: 1) Roger Clemens and David Wells will not be starting Games 3 and 4. I believe they currently play for other teams. 2)The Twins have been here before and won't back down. The Twins have won the past two division titles, have a great manager and have experience in tight postseason games. Torii Hunter has been openly pining for this rematch. I see a Yankee meltdown reminiscent of their Angels series in 2002. Pick: Minn, 3-2

That's all for today, but I'll have plenty more to say as the these series unfold this week. Take it away, Miller and Morgan!

 
A Quarter of the Way to a Perfect Season

I wasn't optimistic headed into the 49ers season, but I still wasn't mentally prepared for this. My Niners dropped to 0-4 on the season with a 24-14 loss tonight that wasn't nearly as close as the score indicated. Two garbage-time touchdowns doesn't change the fact that San Francisco went seven straight quarters without scoring and this anemic offense is going nowhere fast.

At this point, I'm embracing the ineptitude of the Niners and looking on the bright side: we have a very good chance at landing the top draft pick next year. Our only real competition is Buffalo, Kansas City and Tampa. But those teams are too well-coached to keep losing all year. Nobody else has the incompetency of Dennis Erkickson guiding the ship. The draft is less than seven months away, and erstwhile USC stud Mike Williams would look quite good in scarlett and gold. Since the NFL doesn't have a draft lottery, there's nothing to stop them from openly tanking games. The front office keeps talking about this being a rebuilding year, right? Might as well start by getting the best draft position possible.