The Summer Box Office Derby

As summer movie season begins next week, it's worth commenting on the fact that this is the most blockbuster-heavy slate in memory. With Spiderman 3, Shrek 3, Pirates 3 and Harry Potter 5, you have four films that will easily combine for a billion dollars in domestic box office. The interesting question is, how will they all rank when it's all said and done?

The key with summer box office is that kids are the driving force. The more a movie appeals to grade schoolers (who make their parents drag them to repeated viewings) and high schoolers (who have nothing better to do than to go to the cinemas 3 nights per week), the more inflated the box office totals. This favors Shrek and Harry Potter, as well as Ratatouille, the rat-themed Pixar movie. I predict that the mystifying obsession with Pirates of the Carribean will continue, the Ocean's franchise will have a slight rebound from the disappointing sequel and people again love the Bourne franchise. Finally, I think the Spiderman franchise is on the wane, and that goes double for the Die Hard franchise, as I don't think anyone's excited about seeing Bruce Willis in Live Free or Die Hard.

Here's my guess at how the top ten summer movies will stand at Labor Day:

1. Shrek the Third- $350 million
2. Pirates of the Carribean 3- $325 million
3. Harry Potter 5- $275 million
4. Spiderman 3- $200 million
5. The Bourne Ultimatum- $180 million
6. Ratatouille- $175 million
7. Transformers- $150 million
8. Ocean's Thirteen- $140 million
9. Knocked Up- $120 million
10. The Simpsons Movie- $110 million