Beware the Odds of March

Now that I have my bracket set, I can freely offer up my opinions on the tournament. Before I get to my Final Four picks, I'll offer up a special bracketology edition of Random Thoughts:

* I cannot wait for tomorrow. I can feel the anticipation running through my veins. The next two days are my favorite days of the year.

* I stuck to my guns and implemented the "Comprehensive Breakdown" strategy for making my picks. However, I must say that for certain match-ups, I applied elements of all of the other five. You just can't help it sometimes.

* There are several potential games that I was agonizing over when filling out my bracket:

1. Pitt vs. Wisconsin in Round 2. I love both of these teams. The Badgers have the advantage of playing in Milwaukee, they have a player capable of taking over a game in Devin Harris, and their slow-it-down style means they can dictate the style of a game. However, Pitt has strong players both inside and outside and they were champions of a very tough Big East conference. I think Pitt will use last year's tournament disappointment as motivation and advance in a tough game.

2. Xavier vs. Louisville, Round 1. The Cardinals are just like UNC and Arizona- talented enough for the Final Four but wild enough for an early exit. Talent usually prevails in the NCAAs and I think Xavier will be too worn out from their 4 wins-in-4 days run through the A-10 tournament to win again.

3. Michigan St. vs. Gonzaga, Round 1. I'm very tempted to pick the battle-tested Spartans to finally capitalize on making it through a brutal non-conference schedule. However, when I checked the stats I noticed that Gonzaga has a huge rebounding edge. If the Zags can get through this one, they will take it all the way to San Antonio.

* How great would it be if Roy Williams' nightmare came true? What if his North Carolina team had to face Duke in the regional final, then play play Syracuse (the team that beat him last year) only to lose to Kansas in the national title game?

* It's swell that all of the tournament's games will be available to households without cable TV, but isn't it about time for us to be able to simultaneously watch two different games on different channels? Imagine if ABC held the broadcast rights and not CBS- you would have your area's "A" game on ABC, then two other games simultaneously on ESPN and ESPN2. When one of the "B" or "C" games gets interesting, you'd just simulcast it on ABC. It wouldn't detract from the main broadcast at all. It's too bad that Viacom isn't turning to it's cable channels as a supplement- how fun would it be to see tourney games on VH1?

* Every year I always have a favorite pick- a prediction in my bracket that I feel really good about even though it's pretty risky.

Favorite pick: Arizona over Duke in Round 2. Check out the statistics for this region. Arizona leads Duke in every category- points, rebounding, 3 pt percentage, points per game... the Wildcats clearly have the ability to beat Duke. The only question in my mind is whether they have the mental toughness. But instead of getting into a chess match, Lute Olson will turn this match-up will be a game of streetball- flying up and down the court, shots every 15 seconds, steals, pressure defense- and Arizona's athletes will prevail. I'm really surprised that I haven't heard anyone make this pick- this game is the obvious roadblock for a very flawed Duke team.

Runner-up: East Tennessee St. over Cincy in Round 1. I made this pick as soon as the match-up was unveiled on Selection Sunday. You just can't trust the Bearcats in the first round.

Pick I Wish I had the Guts to make: NC State over UConn in Round 3. This could just be wishful thinking from a Stanford fan who doesn't want to face the Huskies. But the Wolfpack have a stud in Julius Hodge and that Princeton offense is baffling for an unfamiliar, undisciplined team like UConn.

* No top seed has ever been disrespected as badly as St. Joe's, which is why I feel like I'm picking an upset when I have them making the Elite Eight.

* Every year, there's always one upset that everybody jumps on, only to see the favorite win comfortably. This year, it's Manhattan over Florida- the Jaspers are the It Team of the tourney. I'm not buying it.

The picks
In the Midwest, I like Georgia Tech, but they just won't be able to handle Gonzaga. I was tempted to pick Washington over Kentucky, but I decided I couldn't pick a second Pac-10 win over a #1 seed, having already picked Arizona to beat Duke. Kentucky, which lacks a go-to guy, won't be able to get by the Zags in the regional final.

In the East, I think St. Joe's, Wake Forest, Pitt and Okie St. will make a very tough foursome. I'm really rooting for superfrosh Chris Paul and the upstart Demon Deacons will advance, but my head tells me to go with the more rugged, versatile Pitt.

In the South, Arizona and UNC will wear Cinderella's slippers all the way to a regional final match-up. This often happens- powerhouse schools have an underacheiving regular season only to get hot in the tournament. Carolina will prevail, thanks to stellar play from the underrated Sean May and outstanding point play of Raymond Felton.

As for the West, my heart tells me Stanford will win, and my head also tells me Stanford will win. On paper, in person, whatever: we just have the best overall team- no glaring weaknesses, a terrific point guard, a star scorer, tenacious defense, the whole nine yards. But I'm not picking Stanford in my bracket. It's a superstitious thing, and kind of a way to hedge my bets. So with that caveat, and with great reluctance, I'm picking UConn to advance.

In the Final Four, I like Roy Williams's experience to lead his team to the title game for the second year in a row. But once there, he will face a Gonzaga juggernaut that will be salivating. I must say, I'm less confident of this national champion pick than I have been in years, but Seth Davis of SI has me convinced that I've made the right choice.

God, I can't wait to see how this all actually unfolds.