The Fallacy of the On-Paper Classic

As for this afternoon's Colts-Pats tilt, I'm anticipating this game just as much as everyone else, but I shake my head whenever I hear predictions that this game will be "a classic." People assume that because teams are matched up evenly on paper, a close game will be the result. However, history suggests otherwise. Ninety percent of the time, a close game is the product of two mismatched teams on paper. The favorite underacheives, the underdog overacheives and the teams meet in the middle, producing a tight finish (think Jets-Steelers yesterday, the Rams-Pats Super Bowl or the 2002 Ohio St.-Miami championship).

However, when two teams that are both great on paper, usually one style wins out. In the weeks leading up the Orange Bowl, we heard "Game of the Century" proclamations. What happened? The Trojans brought their A-Game for a high caliber opponent and USC's style won out over Oklahoma's style. The same thing happened for great on-paper matchups like the Tampa-Oakland Super Bowl and last year's Colts-Pats match-up.

So what does this mean for today? I predict that it won't be a close game, and one team will win by at least 14 points. I wouldn't be surpised to see the Pats grind their victory behind Corey Dillon or to see Peyton Manning outgun the Pats in a shootout. But if forced to pick one team, I'd go with Indy. As I see it, most analysts are focusing too much on how Manning will perform in the poor conditions against Belichick's schemes. But nobody's talking about Edgerrin James, who just happened to have 1548 yards on the season. While the Patriots defense focuses in on wrapping up Manning and the Colts receivers, I think The Edge will run wild today, carrying the Colts to a convincing victory.