The Oscar Week Breakdown: Part II of VIII

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett looks like the favorite in this category, as she's gotten raves for her portrayal of the revered Katherine Hepburn. By all accounts, Blanchett nailed all of Hepburn's inflections and mannerisms. However, when I saw The Aviator, I found Blanchett to be downright irritating. I give her props for accurately playing her character, but I got fed up with the haughty preening in all of her scenes. But I seem to be the only one with this opinion and narcissistic Academy voters will no doubt have extra affection for the fact Blanchett is playing the most legendary of Hollywood stars.

But I don't think that this category is open-and-shut. Traditionally, this has been the hardest of all the acting categories to predict. Over the past 15 years, this award is rife with overachievers who have risen up for one night of triumph only to fade back into oblivion. Looking at that list, Angelina Jolie is the only actress who has gone on to bigger things after winning the Oscar. Mercedes Ruehl, we hardly knew ye.

If the above rule applies, you've got to like Virginia Madsen's chances on Sunday. Here's a veteran actress who's never had any noteworthy parts despite her lengthy resume. But given the role of a lifetime, she knocked it out of the park. Her monologue about the romantic glory of wine was the highlight of the movie, and it's the type of signature scene that can snag an Oscar all by itself. The underdog factor will be just enough to nudge Madsen over the grandstanding Blanchett.

Should win: Virginia Madsen
Will win: Virginia Madsen