The Oscar Week Breakdown: Part III of VIII

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

This is one category in which I've seen all of the nominees' performances. To begin with Alan Alda, I honestly don't understand why he was nominated. His role in The Aviator couldn't have been more than 20 minutes of screentime, and even though he was the movie's only antagonist, this was by no means a showcase role. It's as if the voters just said "Damn there are only four good candidates this year... screw it, let's just throw in somebody from the Scorsese picture." Thomas Haden Church and Clive Owen both play horny scoundrels in their respective movies and both do good job. But sometimes it's just not possible for an actor to overcome their material. In neither case did I leave the theater saying "Man, that performance was Oscar-worthy!"

I think people are overlooking the fact that Jamie Foxx actually gave two Oscar-caliber lead actor performances last year. Anyone who saw Collateral knows that Foxx played the protagonist, had more screen time and gave a weightier performance than Tom Cruise. In short, he was the lead, not the supporting actor. This is ironic for Cruise because he was in Foxx's shoes back when Rain Man came out. Cruise, not Dustin Hoffman, carried that movie; Rain Man wasn't about an idiot savant- it was about a man learning to care for his idiot savant brother. Cruise was really the lead in that picture, but he too got screwed when his costar got promoted for (and ultimately won in) the Best Actor category. I would say that Cruise was getting his revenge 16 years after the fact, except that he'll be sitting at home Oscar night with nary a nomination.

Since Foxx has basically taken himself out of this race (his camp has focused all promotional arsenal on the Ray nomination), there are really only four candidates. With that in mind, the trophy is Morgan Freeman's to lose. I've already stated for the record how much I liked his performance in Million Dollar Baby, and I haven't wavered a bit in the last month. In past years, Freeman has been hurt by stiff competition, but now that he has a clear path plus the sentimental vote, there's nothing stopping him Sunday night. I predict a standing ovation.

Should win: Morgan Freeman
Will win: Morgan Freeman