The Oscar Week Breakdown: Part VI of VIII

BEST DIRECTOR

Based on everything I've read this week, this category comes down to a basic question for most academy voters: Is it ethical to consider Martin Scorsese's complete body of work when voting on this year's award? Most people believe that he should have won his first Best Director Oscar in 1976, when his Taxi Driver lost to the upstart Rocky. But pretty much everyone thinks that he was robbed when he his Raging Bull effort was upset by Robert Redford's Ordinary People in 1981. So Scorsese has been on the wrong side of a boxing movie in a Best Director showdown twice already- how will he fare against Million Dollar Baby?

As I've written before, I don't think Hollywood has much sympathy for serial losers, which is why I picked Hilary Swank to beat Annette Bening. I'm on board with the idea that an Oscar shouldn't be a the equivalent of gold watch retirement gift- to win, you should have to be better than everyone else in your year. To me, Clint Eastwood did the best job in this category, as he told a powerful, emotional story in an intimate way. He also coaxed great peformances out of his actors (himself included) which to me is the measure of a great director.

Alas, I do think that academy voters can't help but look at Scorsese's career when filling out the ballot. The voters will see that he's been snubbed enough and The Aviator is a worthy enough occasion for Scorsese to finally receive his crown. Scorsese also has size on his side. After all, the academy isn't just made up of on-screen talent- the majority of these votes are coming from the editors, visual effects supervisors and sound technicians of the world. Because The Aviator is an epic of the grandest scale, voters will take the scope of the film into account, rewarding its many technical achievements. It's not like they would be giving Scorsese charity on this one- The Aviator is a well-made movie that most people enjoyed. On Sunday, we will finally hear what a Martin Scorsese acceptance speech will sound like.

Should win: Clint Eastwood
Will win: Martin Scorsese