Breaking down the Final Four

Well, even though I was extremely tempted to pick Oklahoma State and Louisville, I went with a fairly conservative Final Four. With Louisville, even though I love their momentum (they've won 18 of 19) and their plethora of scoring options, the road for the Cardinals is just too tough. To make it to St. Louis, they might have to beat Georgia Tech, Washington (or Pitt) and Wake Forest. So let's call Louisville my Final Four pick that I didn't actually pick.

In my first national semifinal, I have Illinois taking on Wake Forest in a rematch of their game early in the season. In that game, Wake never knew what hit 'em, and the Illini ran them off the court. I don't think Wake's defense has gotten much better since then, so once again I think the fast guards of Illinois will push their team to victory. In my other semifinal matchup, I have Duke meeting North Carolina for the first time in an NCAA tournament game. In both of their regular season games, North Carolina clearly looked like the better team, but the Heels weren't playing up to potential. In the Durham game, McCants played terribly while Duke shot lights out, but UNC still had a chance to win at the end. In the Chapel Hill game, the Heels deserve a lot of credit for winning the game without McCants at all. I think that Roy Williams will get his house in order and win the rubber match. I know it's not exactly blasphemous to predict that Illinois and North Carolina will meet in the final. But when I filled out my bracket, I didn't try to be revolutionary, just victorious. To paraphrase Jets coach Herm Edwards, you play to WIN the pool. Hello!?!

In the final, I see the terrific guard play of each team cancelling each other out. The difference will be in the interior. While watching the Big 10 tournament last weekend, it hit me: Illinois could easily be handled inside. Augustine is a serviceable center but he's not going to push anyone around. And Roger Powell, Jr. is a nice player but with a generous listing of 6'6," he's absolutely tiny for a power forward. I see Sean May (my Final Four M.O.P.) and Marvin Williams running roughshod over these guys in the paint.

I used the Crown and Retrace strategy for my pool this year, and I had North Carolina as my national champ before the brackets even came out.