Hall Passes

Despite the fact that March Madness has recently taken over my life, I did catch the news that U2 was inducted into the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame last week. It got me to thinking: which modern artists will make it to the Hall? To be enshrined in Cleveland, you have to have more than just a few pop hits (which is why Lynard Skynard isn't in) and you have to have more than a niche fanbase (thus, no KISS). I'm limiting this list to any artist that debuted after 1990 and I'm breaking it down into five categories:

1. LOCKS (If they retired today, they would be inducted):

Pearl Jam, Nirvana, Radiohead, Dave Matthews Band, Green Day (American Idiot clinched it), 2Pac, Dr. Dre, Snoop Dogg, Jay-Z, Timbaland (one of the greatest producers in music history), Eminem, Outkast, The Notorious B.I.G., Mariah Carey, R. Kelly, TLC

All of these artists could headline a world tour at their peak and they have legions of fans to this day. Nirvana, Biggie and TLC all get their resumes boosted by rock's fascination with death. Eminem just makes the cut in this category; when you combine the critical praise with the cultural impact, four albums is enough to make a Hall-worthy career.

2. ON TRACK (Barring a career catastrophe, they'll eventually make it in):

Coldplay, Usher, 50 Cent, Missy Elliott, Beyonce (even after just one album), Mary J. Blige

They've all got sufficient popularity and respectability, but their careers are still too young. In Mary's case, she's about one more hit song away from being a lock.

3. ON THE BUBBLE (Probably will wind up being inducted, but you never know):

Beck, No Doubt, Boyz II Men, Nas, Sheryl Crow, P. Diddy

You could make convincing arguments either way for all of these artists. I think Puffy will eventually make it in for his industry influence rather than his music. As for Boyz II Men, nobody on this entire list was bigger than them at their peak. But when you think about it, their megastardom really only lasted less than three years before they faded into obscurity. They're like the Kurt Warner of the music industry.

4. STILL A CHANCE (These artists still have some work to do if they want Hall consideration):

Weezer, Foo Fighters, Goo Goo Dolls, Nelly, Britney Spears

With these guys, it's too hard to read how history will view them. As for Britney, she's still very young and she's such a cultural icon that the media will never let her fade out of view. But if you look at her life now, you don't see someone who's interested in having an extended, successful music career. She needs at least another five hit songs and at least one respectable album before she's in the Hall of Fame conversation.

5. MISSED THEIR CHANCE (These careers were too short and it's too late for a revival):

The Smashing Pumpkins, Everclear, Soundgarden, Rage Against the Machine, Sublime, Blink 182 (assuming their recent break-up holds), Wu-Tang Clan

These artists all showed flashes of greatness, but their careers just weren't solid enough to put them over the top. The Smashing Pumpkins may prove me wrong, but I don't think that undefined era of mid-'90s rock will garner much respect 15 years from now when the band becomes Hall-eligible. Of the groups in this category, Rage is the band that I really wish had put all the pieces together. Not only did they were the only '90s group with substantial lyrics, but they were the one band that actually got the rock-rap thing right.


OK did I miss anyone from the last 15 years? If so, let me know about it.