They Call it Madness for a Reason

Some random thoughts after four rounds of the NCAA tournament:

* I've long believed that nothing beats the first two rounds of the NCAA tourney, but in terms of drama, this was the rare year where the second weekend was actually better than the first.

* Lost in the craziness of the past four days is the fact that Kenton Paulino's trey was the first true buzzer-beater the tournament has had in three years. I hate when people throw the buzzer-beater label on shots that leave time on the clock. A true buzzer beater is when the buzzer sounds while the shot is still in the air. Paulino's shot on Thursday was the first since Drew Nicholas's shot in 2003.

* Where were Adam Morrison's coaches and teammates after the Gonzaga-UCLA game on Thursday? I don't know how they could just leave their heartbroken MVP writhing on the floor like that with only a camera man there with him.

* Let the debate begin: Where does George Mason's win rank on the list of all-time college basketball upsets? On the plus side, Mason was an 11th seed, a mid-major, had never won a tourney game before this year, the Huskies have at least 4 future pros and UConn was the consensus favorite for the title. But on the minus side, everyone agreed that UConn was vulnerable, Mason was good enough to earn an at large bid, and the team had already shown its mettle by beating Michigan St. and North Carolina.

In the end I think it's a bigger upset than Villanova over Georgetown, and from a pure basketball standpoint, bigger than Texas Western over Kentucky. But I still don't think it will unseat NC State over Houston for the top spot on the list.

* While Glen Davis and Tyrus Thomas have turned LSU into a dominant frontcourt team, but how good would the Tigers be if Brandon Bass hadn't left for the draft? Based on his stat line, Bass may wish he had returned for his junior year.

* Speaking of guys who left early, Charlie Villanueva picked an ironic day to post a career-high 48 points.

* This Final Four proves that all of the talk about conference strength is pure hot air. Year after year, pundits use the tourney results to make arguments about how the Big 10 was overrated or the Missouri Valley is underrated, etc. My hope is that people realize that the tournament is a crapshoot, "trends" are usually coincidences and individual teams do a poor job of representing an entire conference.

 
Return to March

After a long break, this blog is back with my annual NCAA tournament preview. Before I get to my picks, I'd first like to examine two flaws that I've been noticing with the tourney's conventional wisdom. The first has to do with the way that most of the experts are picking their Final Four darlings. There's a tendency to use a process of elimination, leaving your least-flawed team as your national champion. This happens every March, and as a result, many are suckered into taking the "safe" pick. But if you look at the most recent champions, none of them looked immune going into the tournament. Whether it's a supposed lack-of-depth or a few late-season losses, there's always something to dislike about every favorite. Instead of going with the team with the fewest weaknesses, it's better to go with the team with the most strengths.

The second thing that I've hearing is an overemphasis on seeding. People love to use the mantra that a #12 always beats a #5, or that an #11 is a risky pick to beat a #6. But in this age of parity, where mid-majors are often as talented (and even seeded higher) than majors, the seeding matters less than ever. For example, it's silly to think that Syracuse is vulnerable because it's a #5 going up against a #12. But the 'Cuse could just as easily have been a #6 or a #7-- would that have made them any less likely to lose? Trying to seek out seeding trends is pure folly.

MR. PREDICTO

While filling out my bracket, I once again consulted my tried-and-true cheat sheet of bracketology theories. I used Crown & Retrace to win my pool last year, so that theory will most definitely be put to use again. UConn is the conventional pick, the cliche pick, the groan-inducing pick... but it's the right pick to win the title. Starting with the Huskies as my champion, I then worked my way backwards. This year I'm also implementing a heavy dose of Go With the Gut. I must admit that this year I haven't followed college hoops as religiously as in year's past, so I don't know the nitty gritty details of many teams. So I used the "Blink" method- I sized up teams quickly and I went with the teams that felt right.

The only big early-round upsets I picked were Utah State, Wisconsin-Milwaukee and San Diego State. In the 2nd and 3rd rounds (where more upsets tend to occur) I fell in love with Georgetown, Pitt and Michigan State. In the regional finals I have UConn over MSU, Villanova over Georgetown, Texas over LSU, and UCLA over Pitt.

My national title game: UConn 80, UCLA 71.