Return to March

After a long break, this blog is back with my annual NCAA tournament preview. Before I get to my picks, I'd first like to examine two flaws that I've been noticing with the tourney's conventional wisdom. The first has to do with the way that most of the experts are picking their Final Four darlings. There's a tendency to use a process of elimination, leaving your least-flawed team as your national champion. This happens every March, and as a result, many are suckered into taking the "safe" pick. But if you look at the most recent champions, none of them looked immune going into the tournament. Whether it's a supposed lack-of-depth or a few late-season losses, there's always something to dislike about every favorite. Instead of going with the team with the fewest weaknesses, it's better to go with the team with the most strengths.

The second thing that I've hearing is an overemphasis on seeding. People love to use the mantra that a #12 always beats a #5, or that an #11 is a risky pick to beat a #6. But in this age of parity, where mid-majors are often as talented (and even seeded higher) than majors, the seeding matters less than ever. For example, it's silly to think that Syracuse is vulnerable because it's a #5 going up against a #12. But the 'Cuse could just as easily have been a #6 or a #7-- would that have made them any less likely to lose? Trying to seek out seeding trends is pure folly.

MR. PREDICTO

While filling out my bracket, I once again consulted my tried-and-true cheat sheet of bracketology theories. I used Crown & Retrace to win my pool last year, so that theory will most definitely be put to use again. UConn is the conventional pick, the cliche pick, the groan-inducing pick... but it's the right pick to win the title. Starting with the Huskies as my champion, I then worked my way backwards. This year I'm also implementing a heavy dose of Go With the Gut. I must admit that this year I haven't followed college hoops as religiously as in year's past, so I don't know the nitty gritty details of many teams. So I used the "Blink" method- I sized up teams quickly and I went with the teams that felt right.

The only big early-round upsets I picked were Utah State, Wisconsin-Milwaukee and San Diego State. In the 2nd and 3rd rounds (where more upsets tend to occur) I fell in love with Georgetown, Pitt and Michigan State. In the regional finals I have UConn over MSU, Villanova over Georgetown, Texas over LSU, and UCLA over Pitt.

My national title game: UConn 80, UCLA 71.