Wednesday, November 05, 2008
Yes We Did
As 8:00pm neared last night, I knew that the poll closings in California, Oregon and Washington would put Barack Obama over the 270 electoral vote threshold. But when Keith Olbermann called the race and I saw the huge graphic on the MSNBC screen, I was struck by dumb shock: "That's it? Is it really over?"
But in the wake of President-Elect Obama's cathartic, joyous and resounding victory, the predominant thought in my head has not been about the big moment last night, it's more about how we got here. This is the culmination of a truly epic campaign, and for his poise, endurance, charisma, fundraising prowess and strategic acumen, Barack Obama surely must go down as one of the greatest candidates in American presidential history. I've enjoyed the many campaign recaps that have been released over the past few days, but I've noticed that many of the key moments of this two-year campaign have been overlooked. Here's my list of the most underrated moments of the campaign:
5. SNL's Couric/Palin sketch
It's easy to forget how the media (and a large segment of the population) were still intrigued and fascinated by Sarah Palin for the first three weeks of September. Yes, Tina Fey has gotten scads of coverage for her brilliant Sarah Palin impression, and the first sketch with Amy Poehler's Hillary Clinton was a hoot. But when she returned the week after the premiere and did a nearly word-for-word lampooning of the actual Palin/Couric interview, the public perception changed palpably. The underrated aspect is how SNL wasn't just riding on the coattails of the race, it was actually shaping the race. That sketch was the beginning of the end of Palin's credibility.
4. Hillary's concession speech
One of the main storylines of the Clinton/Obama primary battle was whether the Democrats would be able to come together after six months of bitter competition. But when Hillary delivered that earnest, gracious speech to her supporters, it was proof that she'd be willing and able to deliver her army of supporters to the Democratic ticket. That speech on June 7 was the milestone signaling the beginning of the general election.
3. Huckabee drops out of the race
I've always thought that Mike Huckabee would have been the most formidable GOP candidate in the general election. He had the conservative record, he had the genial personality, and for a while, the full attention of the media. But for whatever reason, he didn't connect with voters in the Republican primaries and when he finally conceded, I breathed a sigh of relief. But I still don't understand why John McCain didn't choose Huckabee to be his running mate, as he would have been a perfect balance to the GOP ticket.
2. Obama sweeps "Chesapeake Tuesday"
For the first month of the primary season, all of the focus was on "Super Tuesday" February 5, which featured California, New York, Illinois and many other delegate-rich states. The Clinton campaign won most of the big states and emerged as the clear winner of the day. But one week later, the big secret was exposed: the Obama campaign had planned for the long-haul, while the Clinton campaign had put all their eggs in the Super Tuesday basket. With Obama's Feb. 12 wins in Virginia, Maryland and D.C, he pulled ahead in the delegate count and never looked back. Those victories were part of an 11-state win streak that put the race out of reach. Chesapeake Tuesday sent a message that Obama's campaign organization was a political operation that would not be stopped.
1. John Edwards wins 30% of the vote in the Iowa caucus
Who? Ohhhhh, John Edwards, yes I remember him now!
It's easy to forget that the Democrats had a three-way battle in the primary for the first few months of the year, and for a time, John Edwards had just as big a following as Obama and Clinton. If Edwards hadn't split the "experienced white candidate" vote in the caucus ( he actually beat Clinton by one point), there's no way Obama would have won Iowa and his presidential campaign might have ended in January.
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Sunday, September 07, 2008
Summer Box Office Report Card
Back in May, I once again took a stab at predicting the top ten movies of the summer with their box office totals. I fared much better than last year it pains me how see how close I was to really nailing it. While I was able to predict the top five movies, I botched the order- particularly that number one slot. If only I had listened to myself back in January and hadn't reneged on my original prediction that The Dark Knight would be the summer's top grosser! Argh- next time I'll trust my instincts. With the brilliant cast, stellar early reviews and awesome marketing, that had blockbuster written all over it (though who knew it was a half- billion dollar blockbuster?).
Looking back, I overestimated the appeal of Wall-E as I should have realized that a bleak, eradication-of-Earth's-population plot would limit the character's lovability (thankfully, Kung Fu Panda filled that void). I also underestimated the Hulk, while overestimating the ability of male-driven comedies to make the top ten. Finally, I can hang my hat on my prediction of the "surprising" success of female-oriented Sex and the City and Mamma Mia! (which wound up #11). Say it with me folks: Counterprogramming works and women do actually like movies!
| Predicted Top 10 | Total | Actual Top 10 | Total | 1 | Indiana Jones 4 | $340M | The Dark Knight | $502M | 2 | Wall-E | $320M | Iron Man | $318M | 3 | Iron Man | $305M | Indiana Jones 4 | $316M | 4 | The Dark Knight | $280M | Hancock | $227M | 5 | Hancock | $260M | Wall-E | $218M | 6 | Sex and the City | $220M | Kung Fu Panda | $214M | 7 | The Chronicles of Narnia | $200M | Sex and the City | $153M | 8 | Mamma Mia! | $150M | The Chronicles of Narnia | $142M | 9 | Get Smart | $140M | The Incredible Hulk | $135M | 10 | You Don’t Mess with the Zohan | $120M | Wanted | $134M |
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Monday, August 04, 2008
A Better Sports CalendarSports fans across the nation are currently suffering through the annual dregs of the sports calendar. Every year, we face an unbearable patch of athletic dormancy following the NBA finals, and every year it feels more painful. Let's face it-- midseason baseball is monotonous, and boredom is the only reason people get hyped up about the All Star break and the trade deadline. This summer, Euro 2008 was a brief salve in June and the Beijing Olympics will provide an early end to the doldrums starting this Friday. But what about next year, when there are no quadrennial international events to provide relief in the 10 weeks preceding the start of football season? This is why we need to revise the sports calendar, re-arranging the seasons of various sports to avoid dead spots. I'm focusing on the six major sports (college and pro football, college and pro basketball, hockey and baseball) and the high-profile secondary sports of golf and tennis. What follows is a schedule meant to A) maximize the amount of sports taking place at any given time, and B) space out the playoffs of the various sports to prevent overlap. Calendars that don't change: College Football, College Basketball, Golf, BaseballIf we're trying to be as realistic as possible in this exercise, it's important to acknowledge that the college sports calendars would be the most difficult to change, since they're tied to the academic calendar. Besides, who wants to mess with March Madness? I would like the college football bowl games to start a week earlier, culminating with the four BCS bowl games on Jan. 1, and the championship game on Jan. 2. But this is merely condensing the useless hype of bowl season and wouldn't affect the regular season schedule. Golf and baseball also wouldn't start earlier or later, due to the fact that bad weather bookends these seasons in much of the country. Calendars with minor movement: NFL, NHL, TennisInstead of having the NHL season start in October and get overshadowed by baseball's postseason, I'm pushing hockey's start to mid November. This will push the perennially underrated Stanley Cup playoffs deeper into the summer, providing a better showcase. With tennis, I'm moving the French open to early May and Wimbledon to late July. This accomplishes two goals: splitting up the French Open and Wimbledon (which are inexplicably back-to-back) and moving Wimbledon to a less-rainy time of year. The best aspect of this entire calendar is the move I'm making with the NFL. I'm starting the season one month later, which pushes the entire playoffs into February, culminating in the Super Bowl during the first Sunday in March. February is one of the two dead spots on the current sports calendar-- imagine if it were filled by biggest postseason of all? You'd also have an increased chance of snow games, which viewers absolutely love. As long as the Super Bowl continues to be held in domes and warm-weather cities, there shouldn't be a problem. Calendar with the mega-change: The NBAIn order to make a significant impact on the summer, there had to be one sport with a significant change in its season. The Association is the perfect candidate, since it's an indoor sport with an extended postseason. We push back the start of the NBA season from November to January, right after the college bowl games are done. That means the playoffs start Independence Day weekend and last right up until the start of college football. When combined with the Stanley Cup chase preceding it, this creates a glorious Playoff Summer, where May, June, July and August are taken up by the NHL and NBA playoffs, with baseball, tennis and golf underlying everything. Boom- no more summer sports doldrums. Here's a visual of my plan, with the current calendar followed by the new-and-improved version. The fan's life will never be the same.
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Saturday, July 19, 2008
The Dark Knight Scene-StealerI saw the thrilling, haunting, epic The Dark Knight this weekend and I was impressed by how well it lived up to expectations. The interesting thing is that, we have a Batman movie where the titular superhero, an American icon, is upstaged by a supporting character, played by a foreign actor who's depth and power made him stand out from his peers. I'm of course talking about Gary Oldman. I swear I'm not just saying this to be contrarian. Oldman's portrayal of Liet. Jim Gordon was wonderfully understated yet poignant, weighty and memorable. Believe it or not, Oldman carries this film from start (where he establishes Jim Gordon as the only trustworthy man in Gotham) to finish (where his speech on the nature of heroes provides a touching epilogue). The true measure of Oldman's impact with the audience came in his scene where the Joker's truck flips over. As soon as Liet. Gordon appeared on screen, the entire theater applauded in relief and appreciation. Heath Ledger was as amazing as advertised, but oddly, it was the quiet strength of Oldman who resonated most with me.
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Saturday, May 03, 2008
Mr. Predicto: Summer 2008 Box OfficeWith Iron Man opening this weekend, it's time to put myself on the record. As I did last year, I will do my best prognosticator impression for the highest grossing movies of the summer. Entertainment Weekly already beat me to the punch with their predictions, but I think many of those guesses are way off. I think Iron Man will strike a chord and continue the trend of massive grosses coming from the first movie of May. I think Pixar is an unstoppable juggernaut, and the Wall-E character will become an underdog movie hero that who resonate in the pop culture years from now. I think mainstream audiences will be weary of all of the warrior epics of the past few years and stay away from the Chronicles of Narnia sequel (at least compared to the first edition). I also think there will be one "grown-up" movie that will break through with women (the "surprise hit" that happens each summer). At the bottom of the barrell, Tropic Thunder, The Mummy 3, and The Incredible Hulk (who asked for this movie ?!?) will all flop. Finally, I'm going to have to renege on my January prediction that The Dark Knight will top the box office. Heath Ledger's death will change everything about how that movie is perceived by potential audiences. The promotion will be solemn instead of bombastic, the press junkets wistful instead of light-hearted. It's a shame because a movie with a poster this fantastic should be a box office king. On to my predictions: 1. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull $340 million 2. Wall-E $320 million 3. Iron Man $305 million 4. The Dark Knight $280 million 5. Hancock $260 million 6. Sex and the City $220 million 7. The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian $200 million 8. Mamma Mia! $150 million 9. Get Smart $140 million 10. You Don't Mess with the Zohan $120 million
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Monday, March 10, 2008
Reinventing the VenueA surprising, and compelling trend has swept the sports world: playing games in unconventional venues. This of course started with the NHL, which staged a 2003 outdoor exhibition game in an Edmonton CFL stadium. They of course upped the ante on New Year's Day this year with a riveting regular season game in Buffalo's Ralph Wilson stadium. Universally praised by the mainstream media, the Penguins/Sabres game seems to have spawned a new craze. The NBA announced that it will play a preseason game in Indian Wells, CA, while the NHL is looking into staging the final sporting event at Yankee Stadium. However, the most intriguing oddball sporting venue will be on display later this month, when the Red Sox and Dodgers will play at LA Memorial Colisseum to commerate the team's 50 years in LA. The Dodgers used to play all of their home games there, using a field configuration with a 251-foot porch in left field. Here's hoping this trend continues. How about a Detroit Tigers game at the Big House? A Brewers game at Lambeau field? Or a Celtics game at Fenway Park? As if you wouldn't love to see Kevin Garnett dunking in the shadow of the green monster.
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Sunday, January 20, 2008
The Boys in Bristol are Drooling with AnticipationAssorted thoughts following today's NFL conference championship games: * Why was there such little on-air criticism of R.W. McQuarters after his two fourth-quarter fumbles? He coughed it up on interception return and the punt return, yet Joe Buck and Troy Aikman basically let it slide each time. These were two crucial mistakes that could have easily cost the Giants the win but McQuarters was let off the hook. * Cheer up, Charger fans. At least Nate Kaeding finally shook off those playoff jitters! * Having a New York-New England Super Bowl is going to be just plain painful for the rest of the country. You just know some overzealous Sportscenter producer is going to try to tie this matchup to the Sox-Yanks rivalry. * On the bright side, thank goodness we have been spared the "Brett Favre's Last Stand" Super Bowl storyline. If there's one thing even more unbearable than East Coast media fawning, it's Brett Favre media fawning. Peter King is probably crying into his pillow right now. * I hope the Media Day reporters are ready for the least-charismatic coaching duo in Super Bowl history. Belichick and Coughlin will combine for about three smiles during the next two weeks. * It's appropriate that the Pats and Giants must travel all the way to Arizona for the Super Bowl-- the two teams are a combined 18-1 on the road. * Speaking of which, I have a theory on Eli Manning's road success. He's been criticized most of his career for being passionless and detached ("Why can't Eli get mad!" has been the refrain). But there's an upside to his apathetic demeanor- he doesn't get nervous. It's almost like he's blissfully unaware of the stakes involved and that serves him well in what would normally be pressure-packed environments. Eli is like a naked toddler happily wandering through a crowded room-- he just doesn't know any better. * This could be the most popular Super Bowl of all time. In terms of demographics, you have two of the biggest media markets in the country. In terms of media coverage, you have two cities that are in extremely close proximity to ESPN headquarters (groan). In terms of football, you have two teams that just played an exciting, closely-fought battle in Week 17. In terms of storylines, you have the Patriots going for immortality, Brady vs. Manning Jr., Tom Coughlin's improbable escape from the coaching hot seat, and Michael Strahan's tumultuous year. I fully expect this to be the highest rated Super Bowl of all time. * Let's not forget the gambling angle-- Boston and New York probably have the greatest population of degenerates in the country. I could easily envision a massive wave of Pats and Giants fans making the trip to Glendale for Super Bowl week, then making the short drive up to Vegas for Super Sunday itself. More money will be wagered on this game than any sporting event this side of the World Cup. As for the spread, the Patriots will obviously be a substantial favorite, but I think the sheer number of Giants fans is gonna skew the line. I think the spread will open with Patriots favored by 6.5, but the line will shift down to 5 by game time. * Based on the past month of games, I don't see how Patriots fans should be all that confident going into the Super Sunday. The Giants have been clicking on both sides of the ball in this playoff run-- their defensive front four has consistently pressured the QB, they've developed a punishing, Tiki-less running game and Eli has been uncharacteristically free of all mistakes. Meanwhile, the Patriots haven't played a dominant game since early November and Brady is coming off a 3-interception game. On top of that, these teams just met three weeks ago and the Giants played the Pats without any fear. I'd be shocked if this Super Bowl were a blowout. Pats 23, Giants 17.
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Wednesday, January 02, 2008
The Songs of 2007It's once again time to list my choices for the best songs of the year. And I'm not procrastinating- I deliberately waited till 2007 was over before compiling the list-- I can't stand the way that most "year-end" lists come out in early December, and in some cases, November. What's the big rush? I prefer to take the Oscar approach and wait until I have full perspective on the year's best tunes. 20. "You Know I'm No Good" - Amy Winehouse 19. "This Ain't a Scene, It's an Arms Race" - Fall Out Boy 18. "Say It Right" - Nelly Furtado 17. "Radio Nowhere" - Bruce Springsteen 16. "Falling Slowly" Glen Hansard & Marketa Irglova 15. "Straight to The Bank" 50 Cent 14. "Young Folks" - Peter, Bjorn & John 13. "Good Life" - Kanye West 12. "I'm a Flirt" - R. Kelly 11. "What I've Done" - Linkin Park 10. "Umbrella" - Rihanna 9. "I Think She Knows (Interlude)" - Justin Timberlake 8. "Drivin' Me Wild" - Common 7. "No One" - Alicia Keys 6. "Give It To Me" - Timbaland 5. "I Still Remember" - Bloc Party 4. "Terry's Song" - Bruce Springsteen 3. "The Heinrich Maneuver" - Interpol 2. "All I Need" - Radiohead 1. "Homecoming" - Kanye West
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Tuesday, January 01, 2008
Mr. Predicto: Bold Guesses for 2008With the start of the new year, it's the perfect time to throw some predictions onto the record. Rather than restrict myself to sports prognositcation as usual, I'm gonna make some guesses about everything under the sun. Here are some things to watch for in 2008: * At Macworld in January, Steve Jobs will announce that all of The Beatles' music will finally be available on iTunes. To coincide with the announcement, Apple will release a Beatles-branded iPod. * Bouyed by game MVP Marion Barber, the Dallas Cowboys will upset the New England Patriots in the highest-rated Super Bowl ever. * At the Oscars, the recent trend of splitting the Best Picture and Best Director awards will continue. After Paul Thomas Anderson's suprise win for There Will Be Blood, the Best Picture trophy will go to No Country for Old Men. * After Michael Bloomberg enters the presidential race as an independent in March, both major party candidates panic. GOP nominee Rudy Giuliani engages Bloomberg in a spat about which mayor deserves more credit for New York's post 9/11 resurgence. Meanwhile, in an effort to disassociate herself with New York and appeal to rural voters, Hillary Clinton selects Bill Richardson as her running mate. *Dr. Dre's long-awaited Detox album will finally be released, becoming the first album in three years to go platinum in its first week in stores. * The WGA strike will extend all the way to April, effectively canceling the '07-'08 television season. Having seen the devastating effects of the writers strike, the studios will prevent the SAG and DGA strikes from materializing by coming to new terms with the unions in June. * To the surprise of few, the second O.J. Simpson trial will be the dominant story of cable news talk shows. * The Dark Knight will upset Indiana Jones 4 to become the highest grossing movie of the year. * The Beijing Olympics will be a ratings hit, and will become the first buzzed-about Olympics since Atlanta '96. Shawn Johnson, Tyson Gay and Dwight Howard will be the breakout American stars of games. There will be no major drug scandals, leading conspiracy theorists to accuse the image-conscious Chinese Olympic organizers of orchestrating a cover-up.
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