Mr. Predicto: Summer 2009 Box Office

 

Yes We Did

 
Summer Box Office Report Card

 
A Better Sports Calendar

Sports fans across the nation are currently suffering through the annual dregs of the sports calendar. Every year, we face an unbearable patch of athletic dormancy following the NBA finals, and every year it feels more painful. Let's face it-- midseason baseball is monotonous, and boredom is the only reason people get hyped up about the All Star break and the trade deadline. This summer, Euro 2008 was a brief salve in June and the Beijing Olympics will provide an early end to the doldrums starting this Friday. But what about next year, when there are no quadrennial international events to provide relief in the 10 weeks preceding the start of football season?

This is why we need to revise the sports calendar, re-arranging the seasons of various sports to avoid dead spots. I'm focusing on the six major sports (college and pro football, college and pro basketball, hockey and baseball) and the high-profile secondary sports of golf and tennis. What follows is a schedule meant to A) maximize the amount of sports taking place at any given time, and B) space out the playoffs of the various sports to prevent overlap.

Calendars that don't change: College Football, College Basketball, Golf, Baseball

If we're trying to be as realistic as possible in this exercise, it's important to acknowledge that the college sports calendars would be the most difficult to change, since they're tied to the academic calendar. Besides, who wants to mess with March Madness? I would like the college football bowl games to start a week earlier, culminating with the four BCS bowl games on Jan. 1, and the championship game on Jan. 2. But this is merely condensing the useless hype of bowl season and wouldn't affect the regular season schedule. Golf and baseball also wouldn't start earlier or later, due to the fact that bad weather bookends these seasons in much of the country.

Calendars with minor movement: NFL, NHL, Tennis

Instead of having the NHL season start in October and get overshadowed by baseball's postseason, I'm pushing hockey's start to mid November. This will push the perennially underrated Stanley Cup playoffs deeper into the summer, providing a better showcase. With tennis, I'm moving the French open to early May and Wimbledon to late July. This accomplishes two goals: splitting up the French Open and Wimbledon (which are inexplicably back-to-back) and moving Wimbledon to a less-rainy time of year.

The best aspect of this entire calendar is the move I'm making with the NFL. I'm starting the season one month later, which pushes the entire playoffs into February, culminating in the Super Bowl during the first Sunday in March. February is one of the two dead spots on the current sports calendar-- imagine if it were filled by biggest postseason of all? You'd also have an increased chance of snow games, which viewers absolutely love. As long as the Super Bowl continues to be held in domes and warm-weather cities, there shouldn't be a problem.

Calendar with the mega-change: The NBA

In order to make a significant impact on the summer, there had to be one sport with a significant change in its season. The Association is the perfect candidate, since it's an indoor sport with an extended postseason. We push back the start of the NBA season from November to January, right after the college bowl games are done. That means the playoffs start Independence Day weekend and last right up until the start of college football. When combined with the Stanley Cup chase preceding it, this creates a glorious Playoff Summer, where May, June, July and August are taken up by the NHL and NBA playoffs, with baseball, tennis and golf underlying everything. Boom- no more summer sports doldrums.

Here's a visual of my plan, with the current calendar followed by the new-and-improved version. The fan's life will never be the same.

 
The Dark Knight Scene-Stealer

I saw the thrilling, haunting, epic The Dark Knight this weekend and I was impressed by how well it lived up to expectations. The interesting thing is that, we have a Batman movie where the titular superhero, an American icon, is upstaged by a supporting character, played by a foreign actor who's depth and power made him stand out from his peers.

I'm of course talking about Gary Oldman.

I swear I'm not just saying this to be contrarian. Oldman's portrayal of Liet. Jim Gordon was wonderfully understated yet poignant, weighty and memorable. Believe it or not, Oldman carries this film from start (where he establishes Jim Gordon as the only trustworthy man in Gotham) to finish (where his speech on the nature of heroes provides a touching epilogue). The true measure of Oldman's impact with the audience came in his scene where the Joker's truck flips over. As soon as Liet. Gordon appeared on screen, the entire theater applauded in relief and appreciation.

Heath Ledger was as amazing as advertised, but oddly, it was the quiet strength of Oldman who resonated most with me.

 
Mr. Predicto: Summer 2008 Box Office

With Iron Man opening this weekend, it's time to put myself on the record. As I did last year, I will do my best prognosticator impression for the highest grossing movies of the summer. Entertainment Weekly already beat me to the punch with their predictions, but I think many of those guesses are way off.

I think Iron Man will strike a chord and continue the trend of massive grosses coming from the first movie of May. I think Pixar is an unstoppable juggernaut, and the Wall-E character will become an underdog movie hero that who resonate in the pop culture years from now. I think mainstream audiences will be weary of all of the warrior epics of the past few years and stay away from the Chronicles of Narnia sequel (at least compared to the first edition). I also think there will be one "grown-up" movie that will break through with women (the "surprise hit" that happens each summer). At the bottom of the barrell, Tropic Thunder, The Mummy 3, and The Incredible Hulk (who asked for this movie ?!?) will all flop.

Finally, I'm going to have to renege on my January prediction that The Dark Knight will top the box office. Heath Ledger's death will change everything about how that movie is perceived by potential audiences. The promotion will be solemn instead of bombastic, the press junkets wistful instead of light-hearted. It's a shame because a movie with a poster this fantastic should be a box office king. On to my predictions:

1. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull $340 million
2. Wall-E $320 million
3. Iron Man $305 million
4. The Dark Knight $280 million
5. Hancock $260 million
6. Sex and the City $220 million
7. The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian $200 million
8. Mamma Mia! $150 million
9. Get Smart $140 million
10. You Don't Mess with the Zohan $120 million

 
Reinventing the Venue

A surprising, and compelling trend has swept the sports world: playing games in unconventional venues. This of course started with the NHL, which staged a 2003 outdoor exhibition game in an Edmonton CFL stadium. They of course upped the ante on New Year's Day this year with a riveting regular season game in Buffalo's Ralph Wilson stadium. Universally praised by the mainstream media, the Penguins/Sabres game seems to have spawned a new craze.

The NBA announced that it will play a preseason game in Indian Wells, CA, while the NHL is looking into staging the final sporting event at Yankee Stadium. However, the most intriguing oddball sporting venue will be on display later this month, when the Red Sox and Dodgers will play at LA Memorial Colisseum to commerate the team's 50 years in LA. The Dodgers used to play all of their home games there, using a field configuration with a 251-foot porch in left field.

Here's hoping this trend continues. How about a Detroit Tigers game at the Big House? A Brewers game at Lambeau field? Or a Celtics game at Fenway Park? As if you wouldn't love to see Kevin Garnett dunking in the shadow of the green monster.

 
The Boys in Bristol are Drooling with Anticipation

Assorted thoughts following today's NFL conference championship games:

* Why was there such little on-air criticism of R.W. McQuarters after his two fourth-quarter fumbles? He coughed it up on interception return and the punt return, yet Joe Buck and Troy Aikman basically let it slide each time. These were two crucial mistakes that could have easily cost the Giants the win but McQuarters was let off the hook.

* Cheer up, Charger fans. At least Nate Kaeding finally shook off those playoff jitters!

* Having a New York-New England Super Bowl is going to be just plain painful for the rest of the country. You just know some overzealous Sportscenter producer is going to try to tie this matchup to the Sox-Yanks rivalry.

* On the bright side, thank goodness we have been spared the "Brett Favre's Last Stand" Super Bowl storyline. If there's one thing even more unbearable than East Coast media fawning, it's Brett Favre media fawning. Peter King is probably crying into his pillow right now.

* I hope the Media Day reporters are ready for the least-charismatic coaching duo in Super Bowl history. Belichick and Coughlin will combine for about three smiles during the next two weeks.

* It's appropriate that the Pats and Giants must travel all the way to Arizona for the Super Bowl-- the two teams are a combined 18-1 on the road.

* Speaking of which, I have a theory on Eli Manning's road success. He's been criticized most of his career for being passionless and detached ("Why can't Eli get mad!" has been the refrain). But there's an upside to his apathetic demeanor- he doesn't get nervous. It's almost like he's blissfully unaware of the stakes involved and that serves him well in what would normally be pressure-packed environments. Eli is like a naked toddler happily wandering through a crowded room-- he just doesn't know any better.

* This could be the most popular Super Bowl of all time. In terms of demographics, you have two of the biggest media markets in the country. In terms of media coverage, you have two cities that are in extremely close proximity to ESPN headquarters (groan). In terms of football, you have two teams that just played an exciting, closely-fought battle in Week 17. In terms of storylines, you have the Patriots going for immortality, Brady vs. Manning Jr., Tom Coughlin's improbable escape from the coaching hot seat, and Michael Strahan's tumultuous year. I fully expect this to be the highest rated Super Bowl of all time.

* Let's not forget the gambling angle-- Boston and New York probably have the greatest population of degenerates in the country. I could easily envision a massive wave of Pats and Giants fans making the trip to Glendale for Super Bowl week, then making the short drive up to Vegas for Super Sunday itself. More money will be wagered on this game than any sporting event this side of the World Cup. As for the spread, the Patriots will obviously be a substantial favorite, but I think the sheer number of Giants fans is gonna skew the line. I think the spread will open with Patriots favored by 6.5, but the line will shift down to 5 by game time.

* Based on the past month of games, I don't see how Patriots fans should be all that confident going into the Super Sunday. The Giants have been clicking on both sides of the ball in this playoff run-- their defensive front four has consistently pressured the QB, they've developed a punishing, Tiki-less running game and Eli has been uncharacteristically free of all mistakes. Meanwhile, the Patriots haven't played a dominant game since early November and Brady is coming off a 3-interception game. On top of that, these teams just met three weeks ago and the Giants played the Pats without any fear. I'd be shocked if this Super Bowl were a blowout. Pats 23, Giants 17.

 
The Songs of 2007

It's once again time to list my choices for the best songs of the year. And I'm not procrastinating- I deliberately waited till 2007 was over before compiling the list-- I can't stand the way that most "year-end" lists come out in early December, and in some cases, November. What's the big rush? I prefer to take the Oscar approach and wait until I have full perspective on the year's best tunes.

20. "You Know I'm No Good" - Amy Winehouse
19. "This Ain't a Scene, It's an Arms Race" - Fall Out Boy
18. "Say It Right" - Nelly Furtado
17. "Radio Nowhere" - Bruce Springsteen
16. "Falling Slowly" Glen Hansard & Marketa Irglova
15. "Straight to The Bank" 50 Cent
14. "Young Folks" - Peter, Bjorn & John
13. "Good Life" - Kanye West
12. "I'm a Flirt" - R. Kelly
11. "What I've Done" - Linkin Park
10. "Umbrella" - Rihanna
9. "I Think She Knows (Interlude)" - Justin Timberlake
8. "Drivin' Me Wild" - Common
7. "No One" - Alicia Keys
6. "Give It To Me" - Timbaland
5. "I Still Remember" - Bloc Party
4. "Terry's Song" - Bruce Springsteen
3. "The Heinrich Maneuver" - Interpol
2. "All I Need" - Radiohead
1. "Homecoming" - Kanye West

 
Mr. Predicto: Bold Guesses for 2008

With the start of the new year, it's the perfect time to throw some predictions onto the record. Rather than restrict myself to sports prognositcation as usual, I'm gonna make some guesses about everything under the sun. Here are some things to watch for in 2008:

* At Macworld in January, Steve Jobs will announce that all of The Beatles' music will finally be available on iTunes. To coincide with the announcement, Apple will release a Beatles-branded iPod.

* Bouyed by game MVP Marion Barber, the Dallas Cowboys will upset the New England Patriots in the highest-rated Super Bowl ever.

* At the Oscars, the recent trend of splitting the Best Picture and Best Director awards will continue. After Paul Thomas Anderson's suprise win for There Will Be Blood, the Best Picture trophy will go to No Country for Old Men.

* After Michael Bloomberg enters the presidential race as an independent in March, both major party candidates panic. GOP nominee Rudy Giuliani engages Bloomberg in a spat about which mayor deserves more credit for New York's post 9/11 resurgence. Meanwhile, in an effort to disassociate herself with New York and appeal to rural voters, Hillary Clinton selects Bill Richardson as her running mate.

*Dr. Dre's long-awaited Detox album will finally be released, becoming the first album in three years to go platinum in its first week in stores.

* The WGA strike will extend all the way to April, effectively canceling the '07-'08 television season. Having seen the devastating effects of the writers strike, the studios will prevent the SAG and DGA strikes from materializing by coming to new terms with the unions in June.

* To the surprise of few, the second O.J. Simpson trial will be the dominant story of cable news talk shows.

* The Dark Knight will upset Indiana Jones 4 to become the highest grossing movie of the year.

* The Beijing Olympics will be a ratings hit, and will become the first buzzed-about Olympics since Atlanta '96. Shawn Johnson, Tyson Gay and Dwight Howard will be the breakout American stars of games. There will be no major drug scandals, leading conspiracy theorists to accuse the image-conscious Chinese Olympic organizers of orchestrating a cover-up.

 
Downside Up on the Gridiron

For years, parity was the universal beacon of hope in the NFL. Teams could swing from a 5-11 season to the playoffs in a twelve month span. Any Super Bowl participant could routinely find itself in a midseason tailspin a few weeks after raising a banner to the rafters. Chaos reigned week-to-week, as doormats frequently beat heavily favored foes.

Meanwhile, college football was the domain of powerhouses. One or two big-time programs (often involving the letters U, S, and C) would earn a lofty preseason ranking and remain entrenched atop the polls. Each week, a new foe would fail miserably to end their perfect records and at the end of the season, one unbeaten champion remained.

So isn't it interesting that this fall, college and pro football decided to trade places?

The NFL now features the defending champion Colts and the seemingly invincible Patriots both unbeaten through Week 7. The prevailing story around the league is their Nov. 4 matchup and whether the winner (which most presume will be New England) can go 19-0. The entire focus of this NFL season is now on two teams that are head-and-shoulders above the rest. Those other 30 squads? We'll let Mel Kiper Jr. worry about them next April.

As for college football, parity has been one stunner after another this year, with top 5 teams dropping like flies. No powerhouse is safe and only a fool would make any presumptions about who will win the national championship at this point. The new mantra is "Any Given Saturday."

As unusual as this season has been for both college and pro football, I think both sports are better for it. With so many bad quarterbacks, disappointing running backs (Lord help you if you drafted Shaun Alexander in fantasy) and mediocre coaching this year, the NFL could use a few bright spots. The Pats/Colts rivalry features two recent champions with Hall-of-Fame quarterbacks and star power all around. This match-up is clearly the NFL's best foot and it's more than happy to put it forward.

As for college football, it's about time the traditional powers got knocked off their pedestals. Depth and competitive balance will increase the popularity and quality of play in college football, just as it did in the NFL for so many years. The sport will only grow with surprise upstarts like South Florida, Appalachian St. and (ahem) Stanford getting their moment in the spotlight. Let's face it-- the nation could only take so much of that damn USC fight song.

 
You Heard It Here First

Hmm, maybe this blog has more influence than I thought. Because clearly Troy Glaus is an avid reader and he took the advice that I gave him back in 2003. Today, SI.com reports that Glaus did indeed buy (and presumably use) steriods. Way ride on my coattails, Sports Illustrated.

 
The Summer Box Office Derby: The Verdict

Back in late April I posted my predictions for the summer's top ten box office totals. Now that it's Labor Day, it's time to look back on how I did:












As you can see, I nailed the top seven films, and nine out of the top ten (having overestimated Ocean's Thirteen while underestimating Live Free or Die Hard). I'm particularly proud of the fact that I got the ninth place finish of Knocked Up (somewhat of a sleeper heading into the summer) right on the nose. The problem was that I was way off in predicting the order of finish. Clearly, the Spider-Man franchise was not "on the wane" as I stated last April (at least financially, if not creatively). And I didn't have any idea that Transformers would be as popular as it was. My final takeaway from this is that I need to adjust for 2007 inflation. Overall, my box office totals were well below the actuals. For example, I thought the fifth place film would rake in $180 million; it turns out that the fifth place finisher took home $287 million, a whopping $102 million more than I thought. The lesson: never underestimate the buying power of the huddled masses.

 
A Movie Career Is a Terrible Thing to Waste

Today's release of the widely unanticipated Rush Hour 3 serves as yet another reminder of how talent can go to waste. Here's a comprehensive list of all of Chris Tucker's films in the past ten years:

Rush Hour
Rush Hour 2
Rush Hour 3

That's it. That's the list. This is the most underreported movie mystery of our time: Why would a comedian as talented and magnetic as Tucker be exclusively devoted to a single, lukewarm trilogy? Usually when an actor lays low it's an established star who takes a few years off to raise the kids (think Demi Moore). But Tucker went in to the Rush Hour franchise with very little under his belt and has no personal life to speak of. Typically, when a young actor hits it big with a $150 million grosser, he leverages that payday to, you know, take other offers. Did he sign the most binding contract of all time? Has his agent been in a coma for the past decade? Or is Chris Tucker hiding deeper, personal troubles that are squandering a talent that could have made him the biggest black comedian since Eddie Murphy?