Mr. Predicto: Summer 2008 Box Office

With Iron Man opening this weekend, it's time to put myself on the record. As I did last year, I will do my best prognosticator impression for the highest grossing movies of the summer. Entertainment Weekly already beat me to the punch with their predictions, but I think many of those guesses are way off.

I think Iron Man will strike a chord and continue the trend of massive grosses coming from the first movie of May. I think Pixar is an unstoppable juggernaut, and the Wall-E character will become an underdog movie hero that who resonate in the pop culture years from now. I think mainstream audiences will be weary of all of the warrior epics of the past few years and stay away from the Chronicles of Narnia sequel (at least compared to the first edition). I also think there will be one "grown-up" movie that will break through with women (the "surprise hit" that happens each summer). At the bottom of the barrell, Tropic Thunder, The Mummy 3, and The Incredible Hulk (who asked for this movie ?!?) will all flop.

Finally, I'm going to have to renege on my January prediction that The Dark Knight will top the box office. Heath Ledger's death will change everything about how that movie is perceived by potential audiences. The promotion will be solemn instead of bombastic, the press junkets wistful instead of light-hearted. It's a shame because a movie with a poster this fantastic should be a box office king. On to my predictions:

1. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull $340 million
2. Wall-E $320 million
3. Iron Man $305 million
4. The Dark Knight $280 million
5. Hancock $260 million
6. Sex and the City $220 million
7. The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian $200 million
8. Mamma Mia! $150 million
9. Get Smart $140 million
10. You Don't Mess with the Zohan $120 million