The Science of Setting NBA Expectations

When I heard today that the Minnesota Timberwolves had released a letter to fans via full-page newspaper ad, I could of course think of only one thing. Say it with me folks... KAHHHHHHHN!!! Wolves GM David Kahn has been the deserved target of much ridicule, criticism and general befuddlement this summer due to his awful personnel moves and Star Trek-inspired internet meme (check out the comments section of this article). But the howls of mockery should not obscure an important point about what Kahn said in his letter. He was actually realistic with his fans.

The main problem with most pro front offices, particularly in the NBA, is that their team goals are almost always unrealistic. Too many teams think they're currently equipped to contend, and hang on to washed-up veterans while making short-sighted deadline trades (see: Cleveland, 2006-2010). Often more dangerous is the "We're Only a Year Away" Syndrome, in which teams overpay for free agents thinking they're only a couple moves away from a title (see: Dallas, 2008). On the opposite side of the coin, there are penny-pinching GMs who hold fire sales, ignoring just how close they are to championship contention (see: Phoenix, 2003-2009).

Unlike the parity-loving NFL, it takes many years of playoff appearances to build an NBA team into a champion-- and that's if you have a strategy in place. The Minnesota fans know the T-Wolves aren't winning the title any time soon. David Kahn knows this too. The refreshing and somewhat shocking thing is that David Kahn simply acknowledged what the fans already knew. To help out the other 29 NBA GMs who aren't quite as honest, I've developed this handy guide (with a nod to this Chad Ford & John Hollinger feature) for setting your team's championship expectations:

Can win this year
Lakers, Heat, Celtics


At least 1 year away from a title:
Magic, Suns

At least 2 years from a title:
Thunder, Bulls, Mavs, Nuggets, Jazz, Blazers

At least 4 years from a title:
Rockets, Hawks, Kings, Bucks, Pacers, Knicks, Pistons, Wizards, Warriors

At least 6 years from a title
Spurs, Hornets, Clippers, Nets, 76ers

At least 8 years from a title:
Cavaliers, Raptors, Bobcats, Grizzlies, Timberwolves (KAHHHHHHN!)

Labels: david kahn, heat, kahn, lakers, nba, timberwolves