LIST-O-RAMA: The Best Songs of 2004

With the end of the year rapidly approaching, I thought I would pretend to be a big fancy professional music writer. It would be redundant of me to join the chorus hailing The College Dropout, American Idiot and The Grey Album, as these terrific records were the only albums of any real substance this year. Since 2004 was all about the iTunization of the RIAA, it's far more interesting to break things down by individual song. So without further ado, here's yet another year-end best-of list:

20. "Lucifer"- Jay-Z
19. "I Don't Wanna Know" - Mario Winans
18. "The Sound of Settling" - Death Cab for Cutie
17. "Ch-Check It Out" - The Beastie Boys
16. "Wanna Get to Know You" - G-Unit feat. Joe
15. "Mosh" - Eminem
14. "Dirt off Your Shoulder" - Jay-Z
13. "Float On" - Modest Mouse
12. "Mad World" - Gary Jules
11. "Flap Your Wings" - Nelly
10. "Mr. Brightside" - The Killers
9. "Boulevard of Broken Dreams" - Green Day
8. "Through The Wire" - Kanye West
7. "Miracle Drug" - U2
6. "Confessions, Pt. 2" - Usher

5. "If I Ain't Got You" - Alicia Keys

After hearing "You Don't Know My Name," the stale first single off her second album, I groaned as I feared that Alicia Keys was just becoming yet another entry into the glut of mundane female R&B singers. But this second single just swept me off my feet with its classic soul and powerful chorus. I always love it when the piano is used in pop music, and here it's implemented perfectly. And as a final bonus: Method Man plays her knucklehead boyfriend in the video! Truly inspired casting.

4. "Evil" - Interpol

I discovered this excellent band this year and this track off of Antics is one of those songs that gives you hope for the future of rock. Like "PDA," from their first album, "Evil" is smooth, haunting and invigorating all at the same time.

3. "Spaceship" - Kanye West

The College Dropout has already produced about five singles, but I can't understand why the best song on the album hasn't gotten its due. Kanye has the best ear for samples of any producer in rap, and here he picks an obscure Marvin Gaye track and makes it his own. Who would have thought a track about hating your job at The Gap would have so much weight to it?

2. "Encore" - Danger Mouse/Jay-Z/The Beatles

The Grey Album got a lot of publicity for its novelty and its flouting of copyright laws. But it's also the best album I've heard this year. Jay-Z's "Encore" becomes blistering rock n' roll when it's put to a loop of The White Album's "Glass Onion" and "Savoy Truffle." With a runtime of just over two minutes, this song leaves you wanting more in every sense of the phrase. With "Encore," Danger Mouse shows that mash-ups have eye-opening creative potential, rather than just curiosity factor.

1. "Maps" - Yeah Yeah Yeahs

I can't remember ever being this transfixed by a rock single. It's a beautiful song that's unlike any other song that you would consider "beautiful." I've heard a lot of writers refer to it as a ballad, but to me it feels like an anthem, despite the fact that its about yearning for love. The best part about "Maps"? It feels new every time I hear it. It's the most-played song on my iPod and I still get chills when I hear that opening guitar siren. A classic.

 
Why Don't I Recognize My Team?

These are strange times for Stanford basketball. In the past, we've entered preseasons in which the conventional wisdom was that a rebuilding season was afoot. In the fall of 1999, we had just lost four starters including Arthur Lee, the team leader. But we turned the naysayers on their heads, shared the Pac-10 title, and earned a number one seed in the tournament. In the fall of 2002, we lost Casey and Curtis to the NBA and Chris Hernandez to a broken foot. But Monty rallied the troops, Julius rose to the occasion as point guard and we fought our way to another 20-win season.

So going into this season, I heard all the haters say that losing Monty, Childress and our seniors would be devastating to the team. But as a student of history, I didn't worry because Stanford basketball always regrouped and defied preseason expectations. Well, after our first seven games, I'm not nearly as confident.

Having watched our most recent games, it just feels like there's a piece of our offense that's missing. There's Chris running the point, Rob and Matt down low, and then... a void. While Dan Grunfeld slash to the hoop to the tune of 19 ppg has been a nice surpise, this offense needs shooters. We've always had a reliable yet underrated three-point shooter, going from Peter Sauer to David Mosely toRyan Mendez to Matt Lottich. I like the potential of Tim Morris, but I haven't seen enough to be conviced that he'll be a significant contributor in the starting lineup. My problem isn't so much with our 3-4 record, it's the fact that this lineup just doesn't look like a team in the Stanford mold. I still haven't seen a posession that looked like a "Stanford possession"-- moving the ball around the perimiter, posting up down low and crisp interior passing-- all year.

Coach Johnson, I'm not ready to throw you under the bus, but you've got your work cut out for you, sir.

 
The Walt Era Begins

Well, Walt Harris was so far off my radar originally that I never even considered him to be a potential candidate for Stanford football coach. I must admit that I'm still slightly miffed that my number one choice, Norm Chow, was available but rejected (what exactly does Chow have to do to get a head coaching job? Since when is grooming three Heisman winners not enough??). However, I can't say that I'm unhappy with Harris. He knows how to build an offense and he turned a mediocre Pitt program into a BCS school. When you think about it, how many schools get the chance to steal the coach of a conference titleist? So for the first time in ages, there's a sense of hope and optimism hanging over the Stanford program- not a bad early Christmas present.

 
Later, Buddy

The sky was bluer today. The water in the shower was warmer. My coffee was sweeter. Even the fabric in my sweater was softer. Why?

Because with the Stanford football program free of Buddy Teevens, the world is a better place.

In a move that came a year too late, Buddy got the axe from his old friend Ted Leland. In the days leading up to Big Game, my inkling was that Leland would be stubborn and bring Teevens back for one more year. But once we gave up that 40th point against Cal, I said to my friends at the Old Pro: "I can rest a little easier now." With a true drubbing in Big Game, I figured that that would be enough for Ted to swallow his pride. Today, our wildest dreams came true. In all honesty, this is the best moment for the program since we beat 4th-ranked UCLA in November, 2001. Yes, it has been that long.

So who to replace Buddy and lead us back to respectability? Here's my wish list:

1. Norm Chow, USC offensive coordinator It's mind-boggling that this guy wasn't given a head coaching job during either of the past two offseasons. Before he arrived in LA, Carson Palmer was three years into an underachieving, blunder-ridden career. After Chow arrived, Palmer suddenly won the Heisman and USC became an unstoppable offensive juggernaut. Oh yeah, and before that he was at NC State, where he molded a kid named Phillip Rivers.

Stanford will make an offer, but I have little hope of Chow accepting. Some folks on the Bootleg have said that Chow currently gets paid $500K annually, while Stanford only paid Teevens $450K this past year. It would be a great job for Chow, but he knows he could make more money at a more football-centric school or even in the NFL.

2. Urban Meyer, Utah coach He's an offensive wizard, the rare guy who truly innovates with his schemes. Too bad he's almost certainly going to Florida.

3. Butch Davis, Cleveland Browns coach He resurrected a Miami program that was mired in probations, arrests and general recklessness. After leading the 'Canes to an 11-win season (in which they should have played for the national title) he earned his stripes in the League, even taking the Browns to the playoffs. Davis is likely to be fired by Cleveland very soon and college recruits love coaches with recent NFL experience. Again though, Davis would command a high salary and Stanford might be priced out.

4. Rick Neuheisel, unemployed coach Funny how we haven't heard a peep about this guy recently, isn't it? Here's a guy with success at two BCS schools, a Rose Bowl on his resume, and strong West Coast recruiting roots. Other than the shadiness of his recruiting and gambling violations, Slick Rick would make the most sense for Stanford.

5. Dan Hawkins, Boise St. coach His offense can score at will and he's led his team to a top ten ranking and flirtations with the BCS. He wouldn't command a high salary, has experience recruiting in the West, and would jump at the Stanford job if offerred. Of the guys on this list, Hawkins has the best chance of getting hired.

6. Ron Zook, public whipping-boy Kidding!

 
Faaaaantastic!

Rather than try to offer up any new thoughts on the Pacers/Pistons Pummeling, I will use this post to debunk several popular sentiments that I've been hearing over the past few days:

* The players had a right to defend themselves against fan violence

I do think that once fans enter the playing surface, they put their own safety at risk. However, there really was no need for Ron Artest to punch the portly Detroit fan who approached him on the court-- he could've easily just shoved him out of the way. And there was certainly no need for Jermaine O'Neal to come flying in from ten feet away with his best Felix Trinidad impresssion. There's a difference between self-defense and retaliation, the latter of which was clearly exhibited by O'Neal and Stephen Jackson, who was blatantly seeking out new people to fight in the stands. Many of the ex-players on the ESPN talking-head crew were justifying the Pacers' attempt to seek revenge on the Detroit crowd. If you want to believe in street justice, fine. But don't try and pass that off as self-defense.

* More security is needed at these games

Adding a line of rent-a-cops is not going to stop cups from being thrown, chairs from being tossed and it certainly couldn't contain a throng of 50+ fans determined to attack a group of players (this is obvious to anyone who has seen or participated in a college basketball court-rushing). Adding more security would be like the post-9/11 security added at airports: it may make people feel safer, but it wouldn't stop anyone truly determined to deliver mayhem.

* Alcohol was a big factor in the fans' unruliness

I'll admit that some of the fans had probably been drinking. But even if everyone in the arena was completely sober, the course of events would not have changed. Fans get adrenaline just from being in a sports arena for three hours, and they're sure to get even more jacked up from witnessing a live, unexpected fistfight. All it took to ignite the brawl was one fan (drunk or not, he was just angry) throwing a cup. Once the punches started flying, fans were going to punch back and throw concessions regardless of how much booze was in their system.

* The prep-to-pro movement in the NBA contributed to the fracas

Gee, I don't remember Moses Malone, Garnett, McGrady, or LeBron ever having any fan altercations. Last time I checked, Ron Artest went to St. John's and two years of college certainly didn't make him sane. A college diploma is not going to calm down a 250 pound guy who's been provoked. I can't stand it when people step way out of bounds just to preach their agenda. This is a clear case of the anti prep-to-pro crowd trying to push their point in a totally unrelated situation.

* The Pacers are done

As Bill Simmons writes in his comprehensive column today, the NBA Players Association is likely to get the suspensions reduced. There is a decent chance that Artest will be back by the playoffs. Besides, in the Eastern Conference, all the Pacers have to do is get another 30 wins in the next five months. Six wins per month is very doable, especially with a great coach like Rick Carlisle. Besides, a rested O'Neal and Jackson will be back in January, which gives them plenty of time to make a run down the stretch. I certainly wouldn't want to be the 2 or 3 seed who finds themselves matched up with Indiana in the first round.

 
Catching Up with the NBA

OK I'll admit it-- the start of the NBA season caught me totally off-guard. With all the hysteria over postseason baseball, plus the happenings of the college and pro football season, I was mentally unprepared for the return of The Association. So here, a week late, is my season preview:

* For the first time ever, I've joined a fantasy basketball league this season. I figured it would be a great way to maintain interest in the NBA during the endless regular season (which can be even more monotonous than the baseball season). So far, it's been even more intense than I anticipated: since my league is playing for prize money, my competitors have been making roster adjustments every single night- I'm just trying to keep up. I had a great draft (Yao, Pierce, Amare and Vince Carter were my first four picks) but constantly tinkering with a 13-man roster for the next seven months isn't going to be a piece of cake.

* One of the most under-discussed changes for the new season is the new divisional realignment. Going from four divisions to six is a change that's been long overdue, but I marvel at how unbalanced things are competetively. It's ridiculous that division winners each get one of the top three seeds. For example, the Southeast division is going to be gawd-awful; the Heat will feast on the pathetic competition, "earning" an easy 2 or 3 seed. Meanwhile, the addition of New Orleans means that the Western Conference will be even more cutthroat. If this were the World Cup, the Southwest Division (with the Texas teams, Memphis and N.O.) would be considered the "Group of Death."

* With all the free-agency manueverings and offseason trades, I think the smartest acquisiton of the summer was the Pacers getting Stephen Jackson. Despite his delusions, Reggie Miller does not deserve to be an NBA starter anymore, so Larry Bird was smart to replace him before he completely decomposed.

* Well, I guess Dwyane Wade doesn't plan on being Shaq's sidekick this year.

* Sign #432 that ESPN has completely lost its touch: the network didn't renew David Aldridge's contract. Aldridge is by far the most intelligent, trust-worthy NBA voice on TV, but I guess he doesn't scream enough for ESPN's taste. What hath Stephen A. Smith wrought? Thank goodness TNT had the sense to snap Aldridge right up as soon as ESPN dropped him. Now they need to take the next step and slide DA in at the Inside the NBA desk alongside Ernie, Barkley and Kenny Smith.

* I just don't get these new LeBron Nike ads that have been all over SI.com and ESPN.com. Don't they realize that "Street Fighter II" hasn't been popular for a decade?

* Alonzo Mourning used to be my favorite player way back in his Hornets days. I loved the intensity, the Georgetown background and the fact that he was the anti-Shaq. It was hard to watch him suffer from his kidney ailment and his failed combacks. But it's even harder for me to hear that he now wants to abandon the Nets and be traded to a contender. Alonzo, this is the team that gave you a contract when everyone else left you for dead-- have you no loyalty?

* While their diamond-encrusted championship rings were a bit too gaudy, I must admit that I dig Detroit's championship belts.

* The Chicago Bulls will be the league's most-improved team. Has one team had a better crop of rookies in the past ten years? From all accounts, Andres Nocioni and Ben Gordon both have a strong shot at the Rookie of the Year award, while Luol Deng and Chris Duhon are nothing to sneeze at either. With Kirk Hinrich coming of age this season and Tyson Chandler finally reaching his potential (forget about Curry- he's always be a bust), Scott Skills will push the Bulls to at least a seventh seed.

* Conversely, the Dallas Mavericks are the playoff team headed for a fall. You just can't replace Steve Nash in that offense. Dampier only had the season he did last year because he was in his walk year and he's never been a great rebounder anyway. Let's face it- the Mavs missed their last chance two years ago when Dirk got injured in the conference finals.

* Page 2's newest columnist, Paul Lukas, is the undisputed expert on sports uniforms. His columns are always entertaining and esoteric, and his review of NBA unis doesn't disappoint. What were the Grizzlies thinking with their blatant ripoff of UCLA's logo?

MR. PREDICTO

MVP: Kevin Garnett
Defensive Player: Andrei Kirilenko
Sixth Man: Troy Hudson
Most Improved: Quentin Richardson
Least Improved: Allen Iverson (The guy was great in his prime, but now he's spent)
Coach of the Year: Terry Porter
Biggest star to be traded midseason: Vince Carter
First coach fired: Lenny Wilkens

Eastern Conference Semis:
Detroit over Indiana
Miami over Cleveland

Eastern Conference Finals:
Detroit over Miami

Western Conference Semis:
San Antoino over Phoenix
Minnesota over Sacramento

Western Conference Finals:
Minnesota over San Antonio

NBA Finals:
Minnesota over Detroit

 
Too Close, or Just Too Reluctant?

As advertised, tonight's Presidential election is close as can be. But one thing that's interesting is that the networks have not been in unision when it comes to calling the races. As I type this, NBC, ABC and Fox have projected Ohio's 20 electoral votes to Bush. But CNN and CBS still have Ohio as "too close to call." NBC called the Ohio race about an hour ago, with anchor Tom Brokaw declaring that "this race is all but over." I was quite surprised however, when I turned to CNN and heard Wolf Blitzer insist that Kerry is still alive. I think it's pretty bold of CNN to be so stubborn, especially when it's so likely that Bush will indeed take the Buckeye state. Usually, the news organizations fall all over themselves to be the first to declare a race over. The cynic in me says that CNN is holding off on a call as a ploy to grab ratings. It's like an NFL Sunday- why watch a channel where the contest is over, when on another network, the game still isn't over?Good strategy by the Ted Turner & Co: I've abandoned NBC and I'm tuned into CNN.

 
A-Rod: the latest victim of "The Mattingly Theory"

Witnessing the Red Sox stunning comeback win over the Yankees, I couldn't help but think about the Pistons' win over the Lakers last summer. In both cases, you have the sport's darling franchise that has a recent history of championship glory, and after an offseason of big acquisitions they began the season as heavy favorites. In the playoffs however, they were upended by a scrappy bunch of gamers who simply played better as a team. But then I broke it down even further and thought about the fact that all this happened despite the trumpeted arrival of Alex Rodriguez to New York.

The Sports Guy has "The Ewing Theory," a phenomenon in which a team improves significantly after losing its star player. Well, I think we now have "The Mattingly Theory," in which a championship team obtains a great player, only to fail to reach the same heights with that player. To wit:

* Don Mattingly. This list is named after Donnie Baseball because he did the impossible: he pulled the Yankees down from their World Series heights. The Yanks won the World Series in 1981. Mattingly joined the team in '82 and had a great career, becoming the face of the franchise. But he never managed to lead his team to a pennant, and retired after the 1995 season. The Yankees won the World Series in 1996. 'Nuff said.

* Charles Barkley. The Houston Rockets won championships in 1994 and '95. Seeking to bolster their lineup and return to glory they acquired Barkley in 1996. But alas, Sir Charles was past his prime by the time he got to Houston and could never elevate the Rockets and achieve the championship ring that so eluded him.

* Terrell Owens. The brash young talent was drafted by the San Francisco 49ers in 1996, 15 months after they won the Super Bowl. While he served as the heir to Jerry Rice's throne and eventually became the team's best player, Owens could never deliver the Lombardi Trophy back to the Bay.

* Rasheed Wallace & Jerry Stackhouse. In 1993 North Carolina famously defeated Chris Webber and Michigan for the NCAA title. The Tar Heels entered the '93-'94 season poised to repeat, having added two outstanding recruits in Wallace and Stackhouse. But the two superstars fouled up team chemistry and Carolina never won it all in the two years before the pair bolted for the NBA.

* Karl Malone & Gary Payton. The two future Hall-of-Fame free agents decided to hitch on to the Shaq-Kobe Laker dynasty in the summer of 2003, hoping to win their first title. But, as we all remember, the collection of superstars went home empty-handed.

* Alex Rodriguez. The $25.2 Million Dollar Man figured he couldn't lose by trying on the pinstripes. He was having a great playoffs until Game 4 of the Red Sox series, after which he looked like a guy who couldn't deliver when it mattered. For all his immense talent, the lasting image we'll have of A-Rod's season is his open-handed bitch slap of Bronson Arroyo's glove in Game 6.

Curiously, A-Rod is both an example of “The Mattingly Theory” and “The Ewing Theory,” as his former teams improved meteorically after his departure. The 2001 Mariners won a record 116 games and the 2004 Rangers were in the playoff hunt until the final week of the season. Is there a more star-crossed star in all of sports?

 
Just When You Thought You Were Out...

A few random thoughts after an insane pair of games Monday evening:

* Ladies and gentlemen, we have ourselves a series. For the second night in a row, the Red Sox have saved their season, their fans' sanity, and Fox's advertising department by prolonging the ALCS. David Ortiz is an absolute beast-- and to think nobody had heard of him 18 months ago.

* Speaking of Ortiz, he totally reminds me of Pedro Cerrano, the menacing slugger from Major League.

* I know it's still premature to predict that the Red Sox will win the series after having been down 0-3. But think about it: if a team were to make the ultimate comeback, wouldn't games 3 and 4 have to be emotional thrillers? Wouldn't the underdog team need this kind of magical, confidence-building boost in front of your rabid fans?

* I wish people would stop using the argument "since an 0-3 comeback has never happened, it can't be done." Everything is unprecedented until it happens. Besides, the past doesn't actually have that much influence on the future. Just to refresh your memory, after five games of the 2003 ALCS, the Yankees also had a 3-2 lead. We all remember how that one went down to the wire. (OK, I'm over-rationalizing now)

* Carlos Beltran has officially turned into Barry Bonds. And as his baserunning skills would attest, he's got some '92 Bonds in him too. Anyone who hits eight home runs in his first nine postseason games needs to be walked every time he comes to the plate.

* It must be very disconcerting to Cardinals fans to see such a high powered lineup suddenly disappear for a game. Did that lineup really get one-hit by Brandon Backe?

 
Is the Boston Dream Over?

As I write this in the hours before Game 3 of the ALCS, the convetional wisdom says that the Sox are finished. With Schilling likely done for the year, how can Boston expect to climb out of a 2-0 hole? Well, I'm not counting the Red Sox out, because I've been thinking about how the ALCS played out last year. Tonight's game, with Arroyo pitching at home against a shaky Kevin Brown, is very winnable for Boston. And if they win tonight, New York will have a 2-1 lead after three games. Last year, New York had a 2-1 lead after three games, and the Sox definitely weren't done. Another thing- the Red Sox didn't have Schilling last year but they still got to the 11th inning of Game 7.

It is conceivable that the Yankees come in all business, ignoring the Fenway catcalls, and close out the series this weekend. But something tells me that there's at least one big surprise left in this series. After all, we're talking about playoff baseball.

 
Debate Reactions

While keeping an eye on baseball via my TV's picture-in-picture function, I caught tonight's third and final presidential debate. I wasn't wowed by either guy, although I thought that there were times when Kerry clearly gave more thoughtful answers than Bush. This was most evident after the questions about homosexuality and abortion; once the questions centered on a specific issue (that couldn't be tied to Iraq or terror), Bush was outclassed. Bush tended to dodge and divert the question, whereas Kerry spoke with more gravity and sincerity. But in any case this debate isn't for those of us who've already made up our minds. It's quite unsettling to think that that despite the tremendous national interest in this election, it's going to be decided by the citizens Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania-- that's it. Whoever wins two of those three states will win the White House.

The thing that really got me riled up tonight was the the post-debate coverage. I cannot for the life of me understand why every network almost immediately interviews partisan figures from each of the campaigns. Senators, campaign managers, and party chairman offer absolutely no objectivity or insight. The networks are well aware of this, yet they can't help themselves- I just don't understand it. After the second debate, CNN's Jeff Greenfield even brought it up-- but 30 seconds later a powerless Wolf Blitzer began an interview with a Democratic senator. Is it too much to ask to get an extended period of objective analysis?

 
Day 5- Total Immersion

Another day, another eight hours in front of the TV watching sports. But I have an excuse, as this weekend I'm out of commission recovering from dental surgery. Here are some random thoughts from a guy with remote-induced Carpral Tunnel Syndrome:

* I don't know why even bothered to wake up for the Red River Shootout this morning. Texas just plays uninspired ball when they line up against Oklahoma. Even though the Longhorns only gave up 12 points, this game wasn't any different from years past. Again Oklahoma's tailbacks ran wild. Again Texas made several costly turnovers. Again Cedric Benson saved his worst performance of the year for the Sooners. And again, the Longhorns showed that they don't deserve to be ranked in the top ten every year.

* This Astros 19-game home winning streak is getting downright eerie. Last week they win with a no-name pitcher who was starting on two hours notice. Now, the opposing pitcher leaves the game after four pitches? Someone at Minute Maid Park is doing some quality voodoo work.

* I've been impressed with Stanford football's growth this year, but today's Notre Dame game shows that we still haven't quite turned the corner. The Card's failure to score touchdowns on those first two drives are the sign of a team that hasn't gotten its act together. Good teams take advantage of all of their scoring chances while on the road.

* ESPN Page 2 has a very enjoyable daily feature this baseball postseason called "Second Guessing." With the benefit of hindsight, they make some very good points, mainly about the choke jobs being turned in by the managers so far. Today's column points out Gardenhire's dubious decision to remove Johan Santana after five innings. Why bother starting him on short rest if you're not gonna let him finish out a game that he's winning?

* As much as I hate the Yankees, you've got to tip your cap to them for the way they refuse to lose. Even once the Twins built a 5-1 lead, you could sense that it wasn't safe. And once the game went to extra innings... forget about it.

* Well, I was wrong- it's gonna be Yanks-Sox all over again. I'm not totally disappointed, as I am very excited to watch this ALCS (and equally excited to read the Sports Guy's take on it) . On paper, the Boston lineup is better, since their 7, 8,9 and 1 hitters are more reliable (with both teams' 3-6 hitters being about equal). On paper, the Boston pitching staff is better, especially since Schilling will be rested enough to pitch games 1, 4 and 7. I don't think homefield will
be any significant advantage, since both of these teams have enough experience winning in each other's parks. It really, really feels like it's the Red Sox' year. But... you know.

* Even though I was expecting a decisive win for USC, today's game with Cal was actually as close as the pundits predicted. Aaron Rodger's meteoric rise is just a testament to how good Jeff Tedford is with quarterbacks. What's too bad for Cal fans is that he'll be an NFL head
coach by 2006.

* I love how ABC kept throwing their oversexed Desperate Housewives commercials at every game break. Didn't they start out promoting this as a show aimed at middle-aged women? I guess it suddenly occured to them: "Hey, we got 21 million viewers last week. We can get more! Quick, let's slap togther every single clip we have of hot women bending over and running around naked!"

*That said, I am one of the 21 million who watched Desperate Housewives last week and it was quite enjoyable. It's like Melrose Place meets Picket Fences meets American Beauty.

* Just when I thought I had the SEC race figured out, Tennessee wins at Georgia and LSU wins at Florida. This is the most competetive college football conference we've seen in years.

 
Two Days Down

The first two days of baseball's postseason haven't disappointed. As expected, the Cards and Astros have outslugged their opponents with methodical efficiency and little drama. In the Angels-Sox series, I was genuinely surpised that Anaheim wasn't able to rally in their first two games (simian mascots notswithstanding). Back in 2002, guys like Garret Anderson and David Eckstein continually pulled the team out of the depths and came up with clutch hits. With the 2-0 series headed back to Fenway, the Red Sox look unbeatable. But as any Sox fan knows, that's when it's time to start worrying.

The Yankees comeback over the Twins tonight was as wrenching as it was predictable. I was baffled by Gardenhire's decision to leave Joe Nathan in the game. As soon as he threw his sixth consecutive ball to start the 12th, I started pleading to my TV screen. When will managers learn that it's better to cut your losses at the first sign that your pitcher is in trouble? It seems like it always gets worse before it gets better.

 
October Madness

Everyone always hails March as a great time to be a sports fan, since the month is dominated by the NCAA tournament. I love the tourney as much as anyone, but if anything March Madness is a misnomer. Not that there's too little madness; there's too little March. The NCAAs actually only take up ten days out of the calendar, so there's a lot more time spent anticipating the games than watching them.

For my money, October is the best month of the sports year, with conference games starting in college football, the NFL season taking shape and of course, postseason baseball which begins tomorrow. As I've written previously, playoff baseball captures me in a way that regular season ball simply can't. This is the time of year when I become a student of the game, continually fascinated by the way that baserunning strategies, bullpen substitutions and pitch selections unfold over nine innings. Here are my thoughts on each of the four division series:

St. Louis-Los Angeles

Watching LA tear the Giants' hearts out on Saturday was a brutal experience. You could feel the wheels start to come off early in that ninth inning, but Finley's walk-off grand slam was like a kick in the teeth. I can't believe that Los Angeles, whose fans didn't even fill the stadium during a playoff-clinching series against their arch-rival, gets to watch their team in the postseason while us San Francisco fans have to wait a 47th year without a title.

On the other hand, St. Louis fans definitely deserve their team's success. St. Louis fans are known around baseball as being the most knowledgeable, enthusiastic, fervent fans in the country. The Cards have a lineup (led-off by the human mascot, Tony Womack) that should instill fear in any opposing pitcher, and their four-man rotation features a crew of under-appreciated workhorses who've combined for 60 wins. I will be more than happy to watch this very likeable Cardinals team sweep Dem Bums in three games. Pick: StL, 3-0

Atlanta-Houston

Why why why why why do we have to watch the Braves in the playoffs again? This has to be the most uninteresting dynasty in the history of sports. There's no personality no heart, no real identity even. Let's see, there's J.D. Chipper, Andruw... is Mark Lemke still around?

Houston is on one of those playing-over-their-heads type runs, and they smell an awful lot like the Padres of '98 and Marlins of '03. Clemens and Oswalt are good enough to shut down the unintimidating Braves lineup, while Houston's big bats will do the necessary damage to continue the home win streak in Games 3 and 4. Pick: Hou, 3-1

Anaheim-Boston

The conventional wisdom says that the Red Sox are a very strong World Series threat based on their power lineup and power pitching. But if we've learned anything over the past few autumns, its that small ball wins championships. Nobody does that better than the Angels, who steal, take extra bases and move their runners along better than any other team. I'm very tempted to take Anaheim, but I think that the Sox have enough intangibles (solid defense, a decent bullpen, the underrated leadoff hitting of Jesus Damon) to match up with the Angels. This will be the best ALDS series, by far. Pick: Bos, 3-2

New York-Minnesota

Well, we've got the matchup that I was talking about last week. I'm not worried about Santana choking under the pressure- after all, everyone forgets that he shutdown New York in Game 1 of the ALDS last year. What I wonder about is how the Twins perform in Games 3 and 4 at home. Last year, the Yankees strutted in and silenced the Metrodome crowd. But there are two things that lead me to predict that the outcome will be different this year: 1) Roger Clemens and David Wells will not be starting Games 3 and 4. I believe they currently play for other teams. 2)The Twins have been here before and won't back down. The Twins have won the past two division titles, have a great manager and have experience in tight postseason games. Torii Hunter has been openly pining for this rematch. I see a Yankee meltdown reminiscent of their Angels series in 2002. Pick: Minn, 3-2

That's all for today, but I'll have plenty more to say as the these series unfold this week. Take it away, Miller and Morgan!

 
A Quarter of the Way to a Perfect Season

I wasn't optimistic headed into the 49ers season, but I still wasn't mentally prepared for this. My Niners dropped to 0-4 on the season with a 24-14 loss tonight that wasn't nearly as close as the score indicated. Two garbage-time touchdowns doesn't change the fact that San Francisco went seven straight quarters without scoring and this anemic offense is going nowhere fast.

At this point, I'm embracing the ineptitude of the Niners and looking on the bright side: we have a very good chance at landing the top draft pick next year. Our only real competition is Buffalo, Kansas City and Tampa. But those teams are too well-coached to keep losing all year. Nobody else has the incompetency of Dennis Erkickson guiding the ship. The draft is less than seven months away, and erstwhile USC stud Mike Williams would look quite good in scarlett and gold. Since the NFL doesn't have a draft lottery, there's nothing to stop them from openly tanking games. The front office keeps talking about this being a rebuilding year, right? Might as well start by getting the best draft position possible.

 
Postseason Pontificating

Between perusing the Giants-Dodgers tilt and the various NFL matchups, I've been checking in on the Red Sox-Yankees game today. For all the hatred and "rivalry" at stake, there isn't actually a whole lot on the line in this game. Given that New York has a 4 1/2 game lead and that Boston has a stranglehold on the wild card, the Sox-Yanks matchups over the past two weekends have been relatively meaningless, since both teams will make the playoffs no matter what.

However, today's game is somewhat significant because I thnk it will be the last time these two teams meet until April. The Yankees-Red Sox ALCS re-match that everyone assumes is inevitable will not actually happen. Why? Two words: Johan Santana. The guy has been as dominant a pitcher over the past ten weeks as anyone in recent memory. In a five game series, there's no way to survive with Santana making two starts. I think facing the New York in the first round would be especially advantageous. You'd have Santana starting Game 1 at Yankee Stadium, then get games 3 and 4 at home, and finally you put Santana on the mound for Game 5. Doesn't that sound very winnable for Minnesota? Regardless of which team they face, the underrated Twins (who also have Brad Radke to go with a scrappy, small-ball lineup) will advance to the ALCS.

The Boston and New York media won't know what hit 'em.

 
End of the Streak, End of the Myth

Having grown up a diehard 49ers fan, Jerry Rice is my favorite NFL player of all time. That being said, there has been way too much hoopla over the end of his pass reception streak yesterday. There's no two ways about it: this is the most overrated streak in sports. First of all, Rice has spent his entire career in a system that favors short throws, slants, and low risk routes. Second of all, there are so many more relevant football records that Rice already holds. Like his 294 touchdowns. His 22,000+ receiving yards. His 14 seasons with 1,000 yards. This wasn't a Cal Ripken Jr. situation, where the streak is the highlight of his career. There has been much, much more to Jerry's illustrious career.

Finally, my biggest problem with the record is that it completely ignores the 1997 season, which Rice missed with an ACL tear. Rice blew out his knee in the opening game (Steve Mariccui's debut as coach, nonetheless) and missed the next 14 games. How exactly does a consecutive-games-with-a-catch streak continue if the player isn't playing in consecutive games? The whole notion of a "streak" is a hoax. I've never understood why nobody ever questioned it in the past seven years.

 
Aquatic Expectations

Lately I've found that my movie fandom has been going through a familiar pattern. First, I'll read about an intriguing movie 6-12 months before it comes out. Maybe there's a director or actor that I like, or the plot will pique my interest. I'll say to myself "man, that movie sounds good. Lemme put it on my List before anyone else has even heard about it." Next, I'll see that the trailer has been released, 3-4 months before the movie comes out. I go to Apple's terrific trailer site, eager to get my first look. I will be disappointed by what I see, as the trailer indicates that the movie has a different vibe than what I was anticipating. Finally, I'll see the movie, which turns out to be even worse than the trailer.

This was the pattern I experienced with The Ladykilers, The Village (which I overrated in my summer movie preview a few months back), and Anchorman. Now, I'm fearing that my most anticipated movie of the fall, The Life Aquatic, may be succumbing to the same pitfalls. Directed by Wes Anderson (Rushmore, The Royal Tennenbaums) and starring Bill Murry as an eccentric oceanographer, I had been hoping that this would be a fun, quirky, thoughtful comedy. But the underwhelming trailer just came out (along with an annoying, longer title), and my hopes are slightly muted. It's so rare nowadays that a movie lives up to my expectations, but with Anderson's track record I'm still keeping my fingers crossed.

 
Why Yes, I Am Ready For Some Football

For the first time, I am participating in an NFL Fantasy league this season. Eleven co-workers and I held our fantasy draft last Wednesday, and based on that night alone, I now understand why fantasy sports has become so hugely popular. Pretending to be a GM, evaluating players, developing and executing a draft strategy… I felt like Mel Kiper Jr. should have been there giving a running commentary. For me, the most fun part were the days leading up to the draft, when I made a spreadsheet and created a prioritized draft board for each position, along with an overall ranking for the top 50 players. It’s like filling out a March Madness bracket, but less pressure-packed because if you screw up, you won’t be eliminated from the game after one weekend of games. Anyway, I had the ninth pick in my draft and I feel that I did pretty well putting together my roster:

QB Joey Harrington
QB Jake Plummer
QB Josh McCown
RB Edgerrin James
RB Charlie Garner
RB Stephen Davis
RB DeShaun Foster
WR Torry Holt
WR Justin McCareins
WR Drew Bennet
Def. Miami
K John Carney

My one hope is that my fantasy team doesn’t take over my regular NFL fandom. I’ve seen guys watch the games on Sunday and care much more about their fantasy team than about their actual favorite teams. This is shameful, as nothing should override the purity of rooting for your team. Speaking of favorite teams, I’m bracing myself for a brutal season of following the 49ers. You can try to be as optimistic as possible (“Hey, maybe this is the year Kevan Barlow can overcome that pesky fumbling problem and becomes a 1,500-yard back!”) but who’s kidding who? The Niners will be lucky to put up 13 points per game this year.

Mr. Predicto

League MVP: Peyton Manning
Rookie of the Year: Larry Fitzgerald
Surprise team: Houston
Disappointing team: St. Louis
Overrated player: Aaron Brooks
Underrated player: Mark Brunell
Comeback player: Kurt Warner
First coach fired: Herm Edwards, Jets
Biggest trend: Rookie receivers produce huge numbers
Biggest shocker: Brett Favre announces his retirement before season ends.

NFC
West: Seattle
North: Minnesota
South: Carolina
East: Washington (sleeper pick!)
Wild Card: Philly
Wild Card: Tampa
Championship: Philly over Minnesota

AFC
West: Kansas City
North: Cincinnati
South: Indianapolis
East: New England
Wild Card: Houston (sleeper pick!)
Wild Card: Tennessee
Championship: Indianapolis over Kansas City

Super Bowl: Indianapolis 31, Philadelphia 20
Philadelphia will take advantage of a rather weak NFC and again gain home-field advantage in the playoffs. The difference is that this year, McNabb has two decent weapons in Terrell Owens and a peaking Brian Westbrook. The Eagles will finally get over the hump and win the NFC title game after losing the previous three. The Colts have developed into an offensive juggernaut and this is the year that Manning and Co. finally turn the corner. Dungy will put together an adequate defense and Mike Vanderjagt is still the best kicker in the league (why is placekicking still the most underrated component of NFL success?) and the Colts will put it all together and win the title.

 
Autumn is in the Air

I’ve been dying these past eight months without college football. Improbably, my love for the sport keeps increasing, which is weird since I graduated from Stanford more than two years ago. I think college football has now passed college basketball (and is neck-and-neck with pro football) on my list of favorite sports. Thank goodness USC and Virginia Tech kick the season off this Saturday. Here’s my second annual season preview:

* Tyrone Willingham can make as many flowery NBC commercials as he wants; he’s still not gonna turn things around at Notre Dame this season. Simply put, the Irish will never be able to get a BCS berth until they lighten up their schedule. USC, Michigan, Tennessee, and Pitt? There’s too much recruiting parity these days and the Notre Dame program doesn’t appeal to the kids they way it used to.

* I know everyone keeps telling us that the annual Oklahoma-Texas showdown will be the game of the year. But isn’t it about time we hold off until the rivalry actually lives up to the hype? It’s hard to appreciate how important this game is when the Sooners just take Texas behind the woodshed every year. Yeah I’ll watch on October 9, but I’m not gonna get my hopes up that this might be the year that the Longhorns actually show up to the Red River Shootout.

* Speaking of Texas, the one thing they do have going for them is that they’re led by the most exciting player in the nation, Vince Young. I watched him play in a few games last year and I thought: “This guy is Michael Vick in Michael Jordan’s body.” And isn’t it nice that Texas can finally go into a season without a fat question mark at quarterback?

* The best conference race in the nation will certainly be in the SEC, where LSU, Georgia, Florida and Auburn are all talented enough to win any other conference in the nation.

* Conversely, the most pathetic conference race in the nation will be the Big East. So who ya got- West Virginia? Don’t forget about Boston College! How ‘bout them UConn Huskies?! What a pathetic offering. This conference belongs in I-AA.

* Has there ever been a better player to receive a more lukewarm welcome to his senior year than Jason White? The guy put up an astronomical regular season, but after two injury-marred games, the media wants to throw him under the bus. “Oh, you mean you want to come back for another year Jason? Are you sure? Really? Because, ya know, if you wanted to leave Oklahoma that would be totally cool too…”

* My must-see games of the year (okay, besides the Red River Shootout): LSU at Georgia (Oct. 2), LSU at Florida (Oct. 9), Oklahoma at Kansas St. (Oct. 16), Michigan at Ohio St. (Nov. 20) and Florida at Florida St. (Nov. 20).

* I think the following are overrated: the Miami Hurricanes, Missouri’s Brad Smith, LSU’s offense, Bobby Bowden, K-State’s Darren Sproles, the Big 12 in general, the USA Today/ESPN Coaches poll, and Cal (okay, bias).

* I think the following are underrated: USC’s running backs, the Florida Gators, Vince Young, Fresno State, Brent Musberger, Washington State as a program, conference championships in general, SI.com’s Stewart Mandel, Michigan’s offense.

Mr. Predicto

Pac-10: USC
Big 12: Oklahoma
Big Ten: Michigan
SEC: Florida
ACC: Florida State
Big East: West Virginia
BCS At Large: Georgia
BCS At Large: Miami

Heisman Trophy: Chris Leak, QB, Florida

National Title Game: USC over Florida. I grew up hating the Trojans, but I can’t help but sit in awe of the juggernaut that Pete Carroll has constructed over the past three years. They don’t even need Mike Williams, since they’ve been stockpiling an arsenal of top recruits for the past several years. Williams (whom Carroll somehow recruited despite the fact that Williams is from Florida) will be playing with pro-caliber athletes after all this year- at USC. Their three running backs (none of whom are seniors) zig-zag up the field like mosquitos. Matt Leinart was one of the best quarterbacks in the country last year- just think what he can do now that he actually has a year of experience under his belt. And that defense… did you see how they mauled Michigan on New Year’s Day?

Florida on the other hand, will be the surprise team of the nation. Everyone expects LSU and Georgia to meet in for the SEC title, but the plucky Chris Leak will follow up his phenomenal freshman year and start dominating like a young Peyton Manning. Leak will steal the Heisman vote by a hair over Leinart, setting up a showdown between the two with the national title on the line. But alas, these Trojans are just too experiened, too deep and too destined to be beaten.

 
The Olympics Have Taken Over My Life

Here are some random thoughts five days into the Olympics:

* I will never, ever get tired of John Williams' Olympic Theme song. I like it so much I downloaded it and listen to it at work. Wouldn't it be great if that score started blaring every time you entered a room?

* The emptiness of these stadiums is absolutely embarrassing. I mean, I know that potential visitors are scared off by terrorism and that some of these sports are rather obscure (synchronized diving?). But given that Athens has over 3 million people and the city has been begging for the Olympics for the past two decades, you would think there'd be a better turnout. Even for a universally popular sport like soccer, there were 8 empty seats for every fan at each game that I've caught. It's awfully hard to get psyched about watching something on TV when nobody makes an effort to attend in person.

* Can we all agree that it was ludicrous to expect Mike Phelps to win eight golds? Thank you, we may now be sane again and appreciate his actual accomplishments after they happen.

* USA Basketball is absolutely painful to watch. Shawn Marion, Richard Jefferson and Carlos Boozer are totally useless out there. There's no need to have eight guys on the roster who's entire repertoire consists of moves like: hesitate, drive into the lane, realize that there are four defenders surrounding you, then flail up a three-foot brick. The Sports Guy said it best- it's time to blow up the Dream team concept and build a team that works cohesively.

* These past few days have made me realize how much I missed Bob Costas. Why oh why is he stuck in the programming wasteland that is NBC Sports? I remember the early '90s glory days when Costas would host NFL Live (with co-host O.J. Simpson) then seamlessly slide into the baseball broadcast booth next to Joe Morgan every fall. We all took Bob Costas for granted. I'm just glad I have HBO so that I can catch him on Inside the NFL this fall.

* Everyone complains about the fact that the primetime broadcasts are tape-delayed while NBC presents them as if they were live. I have no problem with it, since there's no working around the fact that Athens is ten time zones ahead of us. Even if I know the results, I would rather see the complete footage of the event. It's the same reason we watch SportsCenter: you know the result but you want to see what happened with your own eyes.

* This is the second Olympics in a row that gymnastics just hasn't done it for me. I was enthralled during Barcelona and Atlanta, but for whatever reason I just don't have the attention span for it. I can't keep track of which gymnasts are on which apparatus, who got what score and which country is leading. I think I'm getting old.

 
Life in the Clique
 
Last night I caught the second episode of the new HBO series Entourage. I first read about this show a few weeks ago, and was immediately intrigued by the premise: a look at Hollywood stardom through the eyes of a hotshot It Boy and his posse. You all know that I have a sweet spot for the entertainment industry (observing it, commenting on it, but NOT living it, mind you), and I knew HBO would go the whole nine yards in terms of realism.
 
Last week's premiere set the table quite well, introducing us to Vince, the brooding-yet-carefree actor who's just getting started down the path to stardom. Along for the ride are three of his boys from Queens, the chubby oaf, the half-brother who's a wanna-be actor and the real star of the show, Eric, the best friend who also serves as Vince's overwhelmed manager. None of the guys ever expected to be there, and that small amount of humility makes these characters, who could easily have been obnoxious and unrelatable, somewhat endearing.
 
In Sunday's second episode, Entourage really hit its stride. The show works well because it has the right mix of voyeurism (we get to see the guys party at Jessica Alba's house and make out with a squadron of hot starlets) and naivete (Eric is completely in-over-his-head as a Hollywood manager). Watching the show you feel a little jealous, because you know that this world actually does exist for a select few Hollywood stars, but at the same time you see how ludicrious that existence is. The three highlights of the Entourage so far:
 
1. The always enjoyable Jeremy Piven was cast as Vince's agent. It's always evident that real-life actors take a particular glee in playing Hollywood agents.
 
2. Vince is offered $4 million for a movie called Matterhorn (which is described as Die Hard at Disneyland), and everyone keeps a straight face. 
 
3. There's an unironic cameo from David Faustino, better known as Bud Bundy from "Married With Children."
 
 
Clearly, I have picked a good time to start subscribing to HBO again.

 
NBA Glory Days
 
It's been a week since the Shaq trade so it's about time I weigh in (after all, there really hasn't been anything written about this in the mainstream media, right?). Well, since you asked...
 
I was really relieved when the trade went through, as I was of the thinking that Shaq's trade demand was just the Diesel blowing off some exhaust. If the trade had to go down, I thought Dallas was the only option, and when the Mavs fell through I didn't think Shaq would be going anywhere. I figured Jerry Buss would come to his senses, invite Shaq to a fancy dinner and kiss his feet until he had won forgiveness. As Tony Kornheiser said repeatedly, why would you trade Shaq when he is under contract?
 
Well, thank goodness for Pat Riley. This trade was just a great moment for the league. With Shaq and Kobe broken up, you now have the top 15 players in the leage on 15 different teams. It's gonna be like the NFL, where almost every team enters the season with optimism, and you have no idea who'll win it all. Plus, with Shaq, the Pistons and the still-ascending LeBron James (just wait until he dominates the Olympics next month) the East will now be as compelling as the West.
 
As for Kobe, I can't believe that there was so much speculation about whether he would bolt for the Clippers. Why on Earth would he betray the team who catered to his every need and leave for a moribund franchise... that's paying him $30 million less? It was way too much ado about absolutely nothing.
 
The funny thing about the Shaq-Kobe aftermath is that everyone seems to be writing off the Lakers. Stephen A. Smith was yowling the other day that the Lakers would be lucky to make the playoffs next year. But people are forgetting two things:
 
1. Kobe is capable of putting a team on his back and dominating when the game is on the line.
 
2. Rudy Tomjanovich is a damn good coach.
 
I just don't see the Lakers falling apart in one season. After all, you only have to win 45 games to get into the playoffs and I don't see eight teams finishing ahead of them. In fact, I expect the Lakers to make the second round, before they run into a team with a dominant frontcourt. Whatever happens, it's gonna be a fun, fun season to watch.
 
 
 
 

 
The Ping's Got That Thing

I watched today's All-Star home run derby, and there's no arguing that Miguel Tejada and Lance Berkman put on an awesome display. However, I was rather disappointed by the weak output from some of the other sluggers. Three lousy homers from Ortiz and Blalock? Just four from the big lumberjack Jim Thome? I know hitting homers is hard, but in a derby environment (where you get to handpick a guy to toss you 80mph meatballs, unlimited pitches, plus ten "outs") shouldn't the best home run hitters on the planet be able to hit at least five out of the park?

I say it's time we go for broke: bring on the aluminum bats. Sure it bastardizes the sport, but the home run derby isn't real baseball anyways. Why not give the fans the most spectacular show possible? It's an artificial event, so there's nothing wrong with using artificial equipment to increase the homer output. Who wouldn't want to see Barry Bonds launching 600 foot bombs out of the stadium? As a bonus, that irresistible ping sound would be a nice homage to the college game, which is an overlooked part of the baseball world. Besides, metal bats are still better than corked ones, right Sosa?

 
Music Musings

Since I’ve been writing about the NBA pretty much exclusively for the past two months, I think it’s about time to mix things up. Why don’t I offer up a batch of random thoughts about our old friend, the music industry:

• I think it’s safe to say that when it’s all said and done, Usher’s “Confessions, Pt. 2” will be remembered as the song of the 2004 summer. I really like the song, but given the lyrical content, it’s pretty awkward when that song comes on at a party or in a club.

• When I first heard the song “Float On” a few weeks ago, I thought to myself: “Wow, Franz Ferdinand has yet another song out. But it’s weird how this new one sounds exactly their last one, ‘Take Me Out.’” What I didn’t realize at the time was that “Float On” isn’t by Franz Ferdinand, it’s by Modest Mouse. Why would two new bands release debut singles at the same time that sound so identical? Even the videos for the two songs look similar.

• Everyone blames Janet Jackson’s poor record sales on backlash from the Super Bowl incident. But the reason her new song didn’t catch on is because she’s pulled a Mariah and started doing the whole breathless cooing thing instead of actually singing.

* Launch and MTV.com are a godsend for music video fans like myself. You can watch whatever video you want on demand, and since MTV is now about 4% music, these online sites are the only place to go.

* I had to chuckle when I read that the entire 2004 Lollapalooza tour had been cancelled due to low ticket sales. With the Flaming Lips, Morrissey and Sonic Youth as your headliners, is it any surprise that they had trouble attracting any fans under the age of 45?

* I’ve had it up to here with the Bay Area hip hop stations. Their playlists are months behind what’s playing in New York. It’s ridiculous that I haven’t heard KMEL or KYLD play the new Nelly or Mase songs even though they’ve been out for weeks on the east coast.

* Speaking of Mase, what a hilarious surprise to hear that he’s decided to come back after five years as a minister. Now we know why Puffy fired Da Band from his Bad Boy label- he knew that with Mase waiting in the wings, he still had a way to tap into the youth hip-hop market.

* Mase’s comeback only makes me more certain that Jay-Z isn’t staying retired. For whatever reason, rappers just don’t hang it up, no matter how old they get. LL Cool J, the Beastie Boys and even Public Enemy still release records. Once Shawn Carter realizes that his Rocafella brand isn’t nearly as valuable without Jay-Z songs on the radio, he’ll be back in the studio, rapping about how he has to “return to the game to reclaim his throne.”

 
Dick Vitale's Prayers Are Answered

I must admit that I was a little suprised today when I heard that Mike Krzyzewski turned down the Lakers job to stay at Duke. I thought that Coach K would have pulled a Mike Montgomery and said "I've done all that I can during my two decades in the college game, so lemme take this fat contract and try working at the highest level of my profession." Well, it turns out that not even the most glamorous job in the league could lure Coach K from his cushy life in Durham. I think the move makes sense for him from the standpoint of job security. He has a lifetime contract at Duke (although coaching contracts are pretty meritless these days) and he'll continue to be treated like a god as long as he stays there. If he were to go to LA, he would be opting into a life of dire uncertainty, as all NBA coaches are on the hot seat as soon as they get hired. Hell, not even Phil Jackson could last more than five seasons on a championship-caliber team before he was forced out. Coach K would've been out of a job within four years, which would leave him unemployed at a still-young 61 years old. And from there, his only move would be to pull a Pitino and try to get back in the college game. He would wind up trying to resurrect some second-tier program like St. John's, desperate to recapture his past glory. Coach K looked at this scenario and wised up quickly.

SI's Phil Taylor makes the very interesting argument that this whole story was prolonged by Coach K for his own selfish reasons. After all, Krzyzewski is the only person who gained from this whole mess:

"...Each speculative story [raised] his profile even more, not to mention his public speaking fees and his endorsement possibilities. It wouldn't be surprising if he parlayed the Lakers' interest into a few more perks from the Duke administration. Stretching things out was a great career move. All in all, Coach K played this situation out as masterfully as any game he's ever coached."

 
Now's When the NBA Really Gets Interesting

I was pretty pissed that I had to miss the first two hours of the NBA Draft last Thursday (stupid full-time job!) but thanks to the internet, I was able to follow the proceedings pick-by-pick. Here are some random thoughts in the wake of the first week of the NBA offseason:

* Has this been the most exciting offseason week in NBA history? I mean, Shaq trade demands, a new McGrady rumor every 2 hours, and a draft filled with unknown talents galore. See, the NBA is taking after major league baseball and developing a hot-stove league. Offseason hype is great for the sport, as fans and journalists go apeshit for every nugget of speculation. I'm telling you, Offseason Illustrated needs to hit the newsstands immediately!

* The Mavericks need to bite the bullet and make this Shaq trade happen. The Mavs are the only team with enough tradeable assets to even make it feasible, salary-wise. And Mark Cuban needs to face the fact that Dallas will not win a title with that core. Dirk, Nash and Finley have created an entertaining brand that fans like, but you just can't win without a gritty, put-the-team-on-my-back kind of player. That's why Cuban needs to be willing to part with Dirk in order to make the deal happen. It's like buying a really expensive car- you only cry once.

* I don't know what to make of Tracy McGrady. First he bolted Toronto so that he could step out of Vince Carter's shadow and be The Man on his own team. Now he realizes he can't elevate a team by himself and wants to play for a contender. But there's no way McGrady can coexist with another star- he's more of a ball-hog than any player in the league. Once he realizes he can't score his 29 points a night, he'll have the Payton pout going.

Furthermore, Houston would be the worst fit possible for McGrady and for Yao, who needs to be the focal point of the offense. The whole problem with Steve Franchise was that he was a scorer, not a passer. The smart thing would be for the Rockets to trade Francis and Mobely for some rebounders and then sign Steve Nash as a free agent.

* I still can't believe Orlando passed on Okafor. He's a sure thing who's proven himself at the highest level, so why take a chance on a potential Eddy Curry? The Charlotte Bobcats (who bamboozled the Clippers into getting the second pick) have gotten themselves off to a very nice start.

* I'm happy for Josh Childress, who became the highest draft pick in Stanford history. Atlanta is probably the best city in the country for a black, 21 year-old NBA player, as we found out from the Gold Club trial. Here's hoping that he keeps the 'fro and doesn't resort to the cornrows, which are ubiquitous in the dirty south.

* When Portland picked Sebastian Telfair with the 13th pick, a nation rolled its collective eyes. Will the Blazers ever learn? I'm setting 5 as the over/under on months until Telfair's first marijuana arrest.

* Once again, the Warriors had the 11th pick. Once again, they selected a Euro that nobody's heard of. I hope Monty knows how to curse in Latvian. But since my boy Chris Mullin is calling the shots, I'll withhold judgement until at least 2 weeks into the season.

* On his radio show, Dan Patrick pointed out that race always plays a factor in those draft scouting reports. For example, white players like Luke Jackson are always described as with the same workmanlike adjectives. He's "hard working...a real gym rat...the son of a coach...his teammates love him." And my favorite: "He's deceptively fast!"

* I seemed to be the only guy who thought that Boston had a really good draft, especially with their picks of Delonte West and Tony Allen at the end of the first round. Allen will will follow the Gilbert Arenas-Tayshaun Prince-Josh Howard mold of "Gee what a surprise! A guy who was good in college gets drafted late then turns out to be good in the NBA!"

* From what I saw, I felt that ESPN's draft coverage wasn't as good as last year's and wasn't nearly as good as TNT used to be. For a proceedings as outlandish as the NBA Draft, Charles Barkley and Kenny Smith definitely need to be on hand.

 
Mr. Predicto Revisited

If there's anything I love more than making wild predictions, it's patting myself on the back when I turn out to be right. So now that the NBA season over, it's time to take a look back at my preseason predictions and see how I did.

* "I think Dwyane Wade will win rookie of the year. He, not Carmelo, was the best college player last year and his 6'5'' body is NBA-ready...The Heat have a lot of young talent that will flourish now that Pat Riley's iron fist is no longer holding the team back."

Did I tell you about Dwyane Wade? Did I TELL you? While I was a bit overly optimistic with the Rookie-of-the-Year prediction I knew this guy was destined for greatness. Ever since I saw him torch Kentucky in the '03 Elite Eight, I was convinced he could be mentioned in the same sentence as LeBron and Carmelo. After Miami got off to an 0-7 start, I was worried that my prediction about the Heat's success were way off. But sure enough, Wade kicked into another gear at the end of the season and Heat wound up with the fourth seed.

* "Whenever I think about Keith Van Horn being on the Knicks, the first words that come to my head are invariably "unmitigated" and "disaster".

Well, given that Van Horn barely lasted half a season in New York, I think it's safe to say that I was prophetic.

* "The door is open for Paul Pierce to absolutely blow up this season. The Truth will be the MVP of every fantasy basketball league in the nation."

I was wrong on this one. I really like Pierce as a player, so it was disheartening to see him sulk his way through the season. He was surrounded with a terrible supporting cast, but despite (and because of) this, he should have been able to average at least 25 points a game.

* "Brad Miller is the most overrated player in the league...Anyone who thinks the Kings improved with this acquisition is kidding themselves."

Sometimes when you step to the plate, you whiff spectacularly. I'm eating major crow, as Miller was spectacular this year. If he'd had arrived a year or two earlier, the Kings would have a title already.

* "Orlando will make a strong playoff run now tha McGrady has some frontcourt help in Juwan Howard."

Ouch. Reading that one is like a punch to the gut.

* "Sacramento is the one headed for a fall. The Kings are never healthy- it's always some kind of nagging ailment or freak injury keeping them from being at full strength."

Last year it was Webber. This year, Bobby Jackson's injury did them in. The Kings really need to fire their team doctor.

* "The Mavs are no better or worse than last year. Even though they're adding Walker and Jamison, that offense get any more efficient than it already was."

You can stockpile as many shooters as you want but as soon as you run into a decent defense, you're finished. And the Mavs were done in by Sacramento, who's not even known for lockdown D.

* "The new-look team I'm most interested in seeing is the Timberwolves. Kevin Garnett was already on the verge of an MVP season...I'm predicting that the T-Wolves will finally get out of the first round."

I was right about the T-Wolves but looking back, I wasn't exactly Nostradamous. It was pretty obvious that Garnett was ready to blow up and that the new talent in Minnesota would push them to round two.

* "The Lakers have star power, but I just don't think that team can come together for a title run in one season."

Thankyou! Thankyou! Please hold your applause everyone. Somehow I just knew that this plan wouldn't work. Champions are more than just talent on a roster sheet. Most NBA champs have won with star power, but every titleist needs role players.

* "In basketball more than in any other sport, the team with the best player wins the crown. And Tim Duncan still wears black and silver."

Well, it's safe to say that Detroit proved all of us wrong.

 
Darko's Last Laugh

What a terrific NBA Finals. Detroit played inspiring ball, exuding heart, hustle, tenacity and intelligence. It was truly a joy to watch this series. If only the Lakers had shown up.

Here are my thoughts on the Pistons' win tonight:

* As great as it was watching Detroit pull away in the third, didn't you feel like they should've implemented a Mercy Rule, a-la Little League?

* How great was it to listen to Al Michaels and Doc Rivers just eviscerate the Laker effort? I've never heard an announcer take a team to task like that.

* If I could be any NBA player for a night, I might just pick Ben Wallace. I'd love to have that supernatural ability to get every loose ball, rebound at will and strike fear in the best athletes in the world. But then again, I might want to be a player who could shoot a basketball.

* I really do feel bad for Karl Malone. He's a class guy (unlike the despicable Gary Payton) and I hope the lack of an NBA title won't diminish his legacy.

* I think it would be best for everyone if Kobe left the team this offseason. Shaq could be the undisputed man, the Lakers could begin their rebuilding process, the league would benefit from the dispersion of talent, and most importantly Kobe could begin a new chapter. If he is acquitted, it would be absolutely fascinating to see what would happen if Kobe had his own team. Would he step up as a leader and take his own crew to a championship? Who would go farther in the playoffs, Shaq's team or Kobe's team? Or would we find that neither player is nearly great without the other on his squad?

* Chauncey Billups reminds me a lot of Brad Johnson of the Tampa Bay Bucs. Bounced around for years, never able to maximize on his potential. Then finally, magically, they mature to the point where they lead their team to a title. Point guards are in fact very similar to NFL QBs. It sometimes takes a few years for guys like Billups, Steve Nash and White Chocolate Williams to really master the position.

* Joe Dumars ought to be standing on a table somewhere boasting like Ali after knocking out Sonny Liston.

Joe, I can't believe you fired Rick Carlisle. "Eat your words!"
Joe, Tayshaun Prince can't be an NBA starting forward. "Eat your words!"
Joe, drafting Darko over Carmelo is the dumbest draft pick ever. "EAT YOUR WORDS!"

* If the U.S. wins the gold medal in Athens, Larry Brown will be a mortal lock for Sports Illustrated Sportsman of the Year.

* The best thing about this series is that it mercifully ended three bits of NBA conventional wisdom:

1. In the NBA, the team with the best player always wins the title. No Shaq, no Kobe, no prob. The Pistons won this title like a college team- with unselfishness on offense, an energetic bench, and a cohesive defensive unit.

2. The East is the West's bitch. Finally, we see that it is indeed possible for an Eastern conference team to win the league title. With these Pistons, the still-young Pacers, and the LeBronaires in Cleveland, the future of the East looks mighty bright.

3. Championship experience always wins out. This myth only reared his head in the last decade, when the Bulls, Rockets and Lakers kept repeating as champions. But it wasn't always like this- the young, upstart Celtics overtook the Sixers; the young, upstart Pistons overtook the Celtics; and finally the young upstart Bulls overtook the Pistons and the Lakers in '91. Sometimes the better team just wins on skills.

 
A Gameplan for OT

The Lakers' infuriatingly predictable comeback win tonight was hard to watch. When Shaq made the 3-point play and the Pistons turned it over on the subsequent possession, I had all but given up hope for Detroit. You just knew the Lakers were gonna hit a 3 to tie it, and because of that momentum surge, there would be no way to win in overtime.

In fact I've long held that basketball's overtime system actually hurts the game from a dramatic standpoint. The suspense that builds up during a back-and-forth nailbiting fourth quarter is often nullified by adding five whole minutes back on the clock. An 8- or 9-point victory in overtime doesn't do justice to the razor thin margins of the final moments of regulation. The tension of the close game is nullified. That's why I propose overhauling the format of overtime completely: first team to 11 points wins.

Here's how it works: 1) Turn off the game clock, but leave the 24 second shot clock. 2) Give each team two timeouts. 3) On all non-shooting fouls, the team that is fouled gets the option of shooting free throws or inbounding the ball. With this format, the object of overtime is to make the most of each possession. Imagine the tension every time the ball is brought up the court- do you go for three? Try to draw a foul? At what point do you use your timeouts? hink about if you were a point guard bringing the ball up with your team down 10-8. Do you play it safe and go for two or pull up for a game-winning 3?

Setting the victory mark at 11 points is perfect because you can reach that total in anywhere from four to six possessions. If you've got some three-point gunners on your squad, you've always got a shot to win quickly. Alternatively, if you've got a big man with a high-percentage move in the low post, he could be your go-to guy. Every overtime would become riveting. But this format wouldn't just be all about offense- a lockdown defense is critical. On that last possession, you need to get a stop because you can't just foul and hope to get the ball back.

Think about what Kobe or Tim Duncan or Reggie Miller could do in these circumstances. Could you imagine the wild atmosphere of overtime in a college arena? Dick Vitale might tear his shirt off in excitement. How could this idea possibly fail?

 
Hoops History for Dummies

Yesterday I stumbled upon Spike TV's marathon of the 52 Greatest Moments in NBA History. It's the type of show that's perfect for a Memorial Day afternoon- you know you're gonna get sucked in, so you don't even try to fight it.

The list was great, if only because it didn't make any sacrifices to attract a younger audience. So while I was worried that it would be heavily weighted to NBA highlights of the last 10 years, I was pleasantly surprised. There was no Shaq, no Allen Iverson, and mercifully, no Vince Carter. The special only had the good stuff, great highlights from the '70s and '80s (plus a healthy dose of Jordan classics). The best aspect was that there were several moments that I had read about (usually from the Sports Guy waxing nostalgic) but I had never actually seen. So I was glad to finally watch highlights of Jerry West's 60 foot shot, the Bird-Dominique shootout in '87, and The Greatest Game Ever.

This is a great time capsule of when the NBA was a completely different game- everyone made their jump shots (even without the three point line), teams actually passed the ball while on the fast break, and the refs didn't blow their whistle every posession. What I saw yesterday made me wonder how great it must have been to be a fan in the golden age. I wish I were old enough to actually remember the good old days.

 
End of an Era

The following blog post is an email that I wrote earlier today to some fellow Stanford fans. It best sums up my feelings about Mike Montgomery leaving Stanford yesterday.

I didn't get much sleep last night, as I lay awake pondering the devastating
news. I can't believe that the face of Stanford Basketball is leaving us. Mike
Montgomery IS the program.

I was thinking about how this compares to when Tyrone left us for Notre Dame,
but this just feels so different. In football, we have a much longer history
and we've had great coaches leave before. But Monty has been an institution
here for almost two decades and he built our basketball program from the
ground up. On the other hand, when Tyrone left, he had the gall to bolt for
another college team (a team that we play annually, no less). I can at least
respect Monty for going to a job at the highest level in his profession.

So now we start to think about the future. Who will coach the team next year?
We’re already losing Josh, Justin, Lotty and Joe, so we already knew the
team would have a new look. It might make sense to have Tony Fuller or Eric
Reveno serve as interim coach for the coming season, since it is relatively
late in the year for a new coach, new staff and new system to be implemented.
But chances are, the athletic department will hire someone with head coaching
experience. I would be happy if we could lure Mark Few from Gonzaga. I just
hope we don't hastily hire some big name coach who isn’t a good fit for us.
I’m skeptical as to how many good coaches there out there who are available.
I guess there’s Matt Doherty. How about Jerry Tarkanian? Steve Lavin
anyone?!?

While it will be very, very difficult for our next coach to match Monty’s
level of regular season success, I do hold out hope that the new guy will be
able to get better results in the NCAA tournament. I wonder if Monty thought
to himself: “You know, I’ve been here 18 years, got us to the Final Four
and gotten us to #1 in the polls, but I think I’ve achieved all that I can
with Stanford basketball.” It’s a tough question to ask because Monty has
been so great for us, but you wonder if he has taken Stanford as far as he
could.

The thing that really makes this news ironic for me is that the Warriors
happen to be my favorite NBA team. And as a Warriors fan it’s nice to have a
likeable coach, but I think it’s highly questionable hire. College coaches
NEVER succeed in the NBA, and given how often NBA coaches get fired, I will be
very surprised if Monty lasts the four years on his new contract. I guess new
GM Chris Mullin wanted to make a splash, and he did. I guess I’m willing to
give Mullin some benefit of the doubt, if only because he’s not Garry St.
Jean.

So all in all, I’m very sad to see Monty but I do wish him well. He’s
given us 18 great years and I hope that he’s built the program to the point
where it can survive his departure. I just think it would be funny if we heard
these words next month:

“With the 10th pick in the 2004 NBA Draft, the Golden St. Warrriors
select… Josh Childress from Stanford!”

 
Rambling through the Playoffs

With a faaaaantastic second round of the NBA playoffs coming to a close, I thought I'd offer up a few thoughts on the games of this past week:

* The Lakers-Spurs series just had me dumbfounded. Before the series I was positive that the Spurs would win in five. Maaaybe six games. And after the first two games, when Tony Parker looked like a Hall-of-Famer, I wrote the Lakers off just like everyone else. I guess the lessons are as follows:
1) The home court can change everything. In games 3 and 4, the atmosphere and style of play were so different, it was like the Lakers were playing as if the first two games never happened.
2) Never underestimate momentum. After the Lakers evened the series at 2, the conventional wisdom was that the Spurs were going to quit playing games and take control of the series when it shifted back to San Antonio. Not so- LA proved it's much easier to win Game 5 on the road if you've won the previous two.
3) You just can't dismiss superstars. I think that we can all agree that Kobe Bryant deserves the benefit of the doubt (on the basketball court, that is). You can never count a team out when they have a player like Kobe, who can score at will and cannot be fazed.

* Watching that series, you could sense that Robert Horry's heart just wasn't in it. Didn't you get the feeling that he was secretly rooting for his old teammates? By the way, with Horry now out of the playoffs, so ends the most underrated streak in NBA history: every NBA champion of the last 10 years had either Robert Horry or Steve Kerr. Think about it: Rockets, Bulls, Spurs, Lakers, Spurs. Maybe Kerr will come out of the TNT broadcast booth and sign a 10-day contract with the Timberwolves, just to make things interesting.

* How is it that last night, Jeff Foster was the most important player on the Pacers? The Warriors drafted this guy in the first round in '99 and he was quickly inducted into the Golden State Draft-Day Bust Hall of Fame. You're telling me that this guy is starting on the best team in the East?

* Watching the game today I was reminded of one of my favorite ideas for an NBA stat: conversion percentage. First you take the number of made baskets + number of trips to the foul line. Then divide that by the number of possessions. It's a great measure of how effective you are with your scoring opportunities. I'm always surpised at how many teams can't convert on their posessions in the last two minutes of the game. With conversion percentage, you could measure which teams can make the most of their chances in crunch time.

* The Game 7 between the Kings and T-Wolves is just what this playoffs need. Either Webber or Garnett will shed their label of choke-artist, so it will be absolutely riveting. But I don't think the winner will have enough to top the Lakers.

 
I'm the Mel Kiper Jr. of Summer Movies

I find myself in the same position every May: excited and optimistic that there will be some really good movies in the coming months. Sure, I nearly always end up sorely disappointed, as I'm not the wide-eyed 12 year-old who was riveted by films like Demolition Man. You know, prognosticating the summer movie slate is a lot like trying to evaluate the NFL draft. And since this blog is heavy on the sports-talk to begin with, let's break down the summer movies as if they were NFL prospects:

LARRY FITZGERALD DIVISION: The Can't Miss Blue Chippers

This class is for movies with either an innovative director (The Village's M. Night Shyamalan), a star that I like (Anchorman's Will Ferrell) or good buzz (the anti-McDonald's documentary Super Size Me) . But the last two members of this class have all three; Collateral and The Terminal have can't miss directors (Michael Mann and Spielberg), superstar Toms (Cruise and Hanks) and an X-factor that piques my interest. Collateral has Jamie Foxx, the flawless comedian who's also an underrated actor. The Terminal is loosely-based on the true story of a guy's who's been living in Charles DeGaulle airport for 16 years.

BEN ROTHELISBERGER DIVISION: Have the potential to be special, but certainly don't bet on it

When I first heard about I, Robot, I was very, very intrigued, as it's about time they make futuristic artificial intelligence movie that's actually intelligent. I can't help but look forward to The Day After Tomorrow as I have a thing for garish disaster movies. The Ben Stiller-Vince Vaughn comedy Dodgeball could be riotously funny or it could be another Mystery Men. Spiderman 2 looks cool, but that franchise is still in need of an awesome villain: Doc Ock is just too unrealistic, even for a comic book movie. Although everyone's trying to make it into the next Gladiator, I'm reluctant to jump on the Troy bandwagon. Brad Pitt has a spotty track record and I don't think he was cast in this movies for his acting chops. In one 30-second commercial earlier tonight, there were three separate shots of Pitt leaping into the air with his tunic-clad thighs spread apart. This worries me.

CHRIS PERRY DIVISION: What you see is what you get...and no one's very excited about it

The first movie was all right, but did anyone ask for The Bourne Supremacy? Do we really need to see what happens next to this white-bread amnesiac spy? I pity anyone who is excited about Van Helsing. Yeah it'll have some cool stunts and slick costumes, but it's from the director of both Mummy movies, which was like a crash course in bad special effects. Finally, there's only one reason to see Catwoman, and we all know what it is.

CRAIG KRENZEL DIVISION: Why even bother?

While Soul Plane merely looks mind-numbingly stupid, White Chicks takes African-American comedy to a new depth. This one looks offensive to both blacks and whites, while ruining any shred of good will the Wayans brothers had left from the days of In Living Color.
I have no idea why anyone decided to remake Shall We Dance, a Japanese dancing movie that was a lukewarm hit in 1996. That they decided to cast Richard Gere and Jennifer Lopez all but ensures it's dismal failure. When will people figure out that J. Lo hasn't been in a good movie since Out of Sight six years ago? Finally, there's no doubt in my mind that the absolute worst movie of the summer will be The Chronicles of Riddick. First of all, Vin Diesel's day in the sun is over- forget all that talk about him becoming Hollywood's next action star. Second of all, even though Pitch Black made decent money when it came out in 2000, that doesn't mean the movie has enough of a fan base to warrant a sequel. Do you know anyone who has even mentioned Pitch Black in the past four years? Third of all, any movies that both takes place on another planet and features Dame Judy Dench is doomed for the land of Battlefield Earth.

 
Are We There Yet?

We're now in the thick of what has so far been the most maddening NBA playoffs in my lifetime. Of the eight first round series, exactly one went past five games. And that one series happens to be the worst matchup of the playoffs, Hornets-Heat (that Jamaal Magloire-Brian Grant showdown just isn't doing it for me). Clearly, last year's decision to go to a seven-game format for the first round was a mistake. First of all, in the NBA, the better team wins a seven-game series 99% of the time. That's why it's always easier to predict the champion in the NBA than it is in any other sport. So when you bring that dynamic into the first round, you get an epic mismatch. The Celtics and Knicks had no business being in the playoffs (hell, those teams couldn't even win the ACC tournament) so the Pacers and Nets didn't break a sweat in those series. The league's desire to drag out the first round over three weekends has backfired, as was blatantly evident this weekend. I'm sure David Stern was just thrilled to have zero games yesterday, a Saturday, and just two games today. Go back to the 5-game, playing-every-other-day format for the first round.

 
Mr. Predicto Under Review

With the end of the college basketball season it's time to look over my preseason predictions and see how I did. Here's how I envisioned the final regular season top 15 back in November:

1. Florida
2. Duke
3. Missouri
4. North Carolina
5. UConn
6. Kentucky
7. Gonzaga
8. Arizona
9. Kansas
10. Notre Dame
11. Stanford
12. Indiana
13. NC State
14. Michigan State
15. Louisville

Clearly I put way too much stock in the Gators, who I predicted were good enough to take home the national title. I should have seen them for the soft, directionless team they actually were. I also completely whiffed on Mizzou (as did most people), Arizona, Notre Dame and Indiana. I was pretty dead-on with Duke, Kentucky, Gonzaga, NC State and Michigan St. As for the rest, let's call it a push.

As for my All-America picks, I was waaaaaaaay off on Ike Diogu as player of the year. Was there a more surpising underachievement this season than that of the reigning Pac 10 freshman of the year? I mean he was a total non factor in the conference, which is why Arizona St finished dead last in a weak conference this year. My other first team members were Emeka Okafor, Julius Hodge, J.J. Redick and Raymond Felton. These were decent picks as all of these guys had good or great years. But I clearly underestimated eventual Naismith winner Jameer Nelson and I clearly didn't put enough stock in our own Josh Childress.

I think my most ridiculous prediction was Indiana to win the Big 10. Hey, you gotta go out on a limb sometimes. And sometimes that limb will break and you fall and break your collar bone. But I am undetered. Predictions are one of my favorite aspects of this blog and my Nostradamus skills will continue to get plenty of practice. NHL playoff picks, anyone?